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 (813KB)
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15,008,000Yen (FY1998;4,994,000Yen)
The change of land-use/coverage, typically deforestation and the following change to agriculture or pasture field or plantation in South-east Asia, is suspected to change the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from its traditional equilibrium stage. We developed estimation models for the influence to the atmosphere due to the disturbance at the GHG balanee.
The prototype models are Chemical Transportation model for global scale, CTM, and Regional Transportation Model, RTM. These are developed at National Institute for Resources and Environment, MITI. It employs the analyzed meteorological data by European Centre for Middle Weather Forecasting. The target area for CTM is from 90E to 150W and between 30N and 30S, and RTM, from 90E to 160E and between 20S and 20S.
In order to investigate the feature of carbon dioxide, CO2, concentration is estimated by CTM using the source inventory data by Fung et al. During the first half of the year, the normalized difference of vegetation index, NDVI, of the forest in Borneo island is larger than 0.5 and the forest absorbs atmospheric CO2. In the last half year, NDVI is smaller and forest emits CO2. The calculated CO2 concentration in Borneo is low in the
first half of year and high in last. This tendency could not be found at CO2 concentration observation at Bukit Sueharto, Kalimantan Timur. The model tuning is carried out by the high aerosol concentration caused by the large scale forest fire in 1997 El Nino. Aerosol distribution is calculated by RTM using the distribution of hot-spots observed/analyzed by ERS/ASTR. The calculation output consists with the satellite observation by NASA/TOMS. Forward and backward type trajectory models were developed to estimate the relationships between the sources and receptors.
land-use/cover change, CO2 concentration, chemical transportation model, regional transportation model, trajectory model