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B-10.2 Predictive Study on the risk of dengue fever spreading due to global warming

[Contact Person]

Masaji Ono
Section Chief
Environmental Health Sciences Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Environment Agency
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0053 Japan
Tel:+81-298-50-2421 Fax:+81-298-50-2588
E-mail:ono@nies.go.jp

Total Budget for FY1996-FY1998

32,318,000 Yen (FY1998; 11,353,000 Yen)

Abstract

Global warming will bring about the temperature elevation, and the habitat of vectors of tropical infectious diseases will spread into subtropical or temperate zone. The purpose of this study is to simulate the spreading of Dengue Fever(DF)/ Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever(DHF) under global warming.
(1) The relationship between DF/DHF endemicity, mosquitoes density, meteorological condition and socio-economic information were analyzed using data-set collected in southern China.
(2) From the results of field survey in Hainan, China and in Chiangmai, Thailand distribution and density of aedine mosquito (vectors of DF/DHF) showed seasonal variation and relation between meteorological condition, in particular temperature.
(3) From the results of laboratory experiments of aedine mosquito we found that growth rate and survival rate of them showed dependency on temperature condition.

[Key Words]

Dengue Fever/ Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever, aedine mosquito, Temperature, Survival Rate