検索画面に戻る Go Research

	(391Kb)

[H-3.2.1 Development of the land use/change dataset of China]

[Contact Person]

Jianxin Gong
Research Associate
National Institute for Environmental Study
Environment Agency of Japan
Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305, JAPAN
Tel:+81-298-50-2417 Fax:+81-298-50-2576
E-mail:gongjian@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1995-FY1997]

8,323,000 Yen (FY1997;2,775,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

In this research, the author has developed a historical database on land use/cover change of change at various administrative units and introduced a simple model simulating year variations of fractions of five land use/cove categories;forest, agricultural land, grassland, urban and non-agricultural land, and others. This model is named GKSIM (Generalized Kane's Simulation Model) is introduced. First, we describe the background of fine development of GKSIM. GKSIM has been developed to be applicable to developing countries where land use/cover data and related socio-economic data are very much limited in spatial and temporal resolutions. Secondly, we will induce GKSIM mathematically and will show the concept of influential matrices, and will discuss the advantages of GKSIM. GKSIM succeeds to the advantages of both regression models and system dynamics models. Finally, we will show an example of GKSIM application to China, in which the projection of year variations of five la!! nd use fractions in China up to 2050 is carried out.

[Key Words]

land use/cove change, projection, simulation model, GKSIM