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[H-3.1 Long-term Projection of Land Use/Cover Change in the Asia-Pacific Region]

[Contact Person]

Kuninori Otsubo
Research Program Manager
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency of Japan
Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan
Tel:+81-298-50-2417 Fax:+81-298-58-2645
E-mail:kuninori@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1995-FY1997]

61,391,000 Yen (FY1997;21,026,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

The main goal of this sub-theme is to project the land use/cover status of the Asia-Pacific region at the years of 2025 and 2050. We developed a long-term projection model for land use/cover change named LU/GEC-I (Version1) last year. The LU/GEC-I (Version 1) consists of four analytical processes: finding driving forces of land use/cover change;calibration of land use fraction function;assuming or scenario writing of future changes of driving forces;and, projection of future land use fraction at a particular area. To modify our model, we introduced a linkage model module representing labour, commodity and resources flows. The modified model is called LU/GEC-I (Version 2) temporarily. The Version 2 was applied to the Kansai District of Japan. In this projection, we assumed the physical driving forces, such as climate, elevation, water condition, etc., would not change though 2050. The outlines of the projection much depend on given future scenarios of driving forces, therefore, reasonable scenario writing is left to be the next target.

Another activity in this sub-theme is field surveys for typical areas in China and Indonesia to investigate driving forces of land use/cover changes and to collect data of land use/cover changes and related socio-economic data. We also conducted 2km×2km Digital Mapping of Past and Latest Land Use in 4 Particular Parts of China where we can get the map at 1930s.

[Key Words]

Land Use, Land Cover, Multiple Choice Logit Model, Linkage Model