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[H-2.2 Framing the Transition Interaction Model Related to Population and Global Environment]

[Contact Person]

Kenji Hayashi
Director
Dept. of Demography and Public Health, The Inst. of Public Health
Ministry of Health and Welfare
4-6-1 Shirokanedai. Minato-Ku, Tokyo 108. Japan
Phone +81-3-3441-7111(Ext.234), Fax +81-3-3446-9247

[Total Budget for FY1994-1996]

15,098,000 Yen (FY1996 4,587,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　Total amount of green house gas from the economic activities is the product of cosumption of energy per capita and population. Considering the population size as well as the potential of economic development in China, the country would play the key role in terms of global warming. In the present study, the impact of population increase on total CO₂ emission in China during 1982-1990 period was analyzed. During the study period, population increase and CO₂ emission per capita contributed 21% and 70% respectively. In terms of population increase by region, some provinces in inland area and megacities like Shanghai and Beijing contributed most. For CO₂ emission per capita, north-eastern provinces and south-eastern provinces along the coast are remarkable. Estimate of total emission of CO₂ by 2010 will amounts to 1.6 million tons, 74% increase related to 1992. Energy transition is the key for stabilization of CO₂ emission in China.

[Key Words]

Carbon Dioxide, China, Economic Growth, Global Warming, Demographic Transition