検索画面に戻る Go Research

	(411Kb)

[H-2.1 Changing Population Dynamics in Asian Countries and its Effects on Global Environment]

[Contact Person]

Moriyuki OE
Ex-Director, Department of Population Structure Research
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Ministry of Heath and Welfare
1-2-3 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-45, Japan
Tel:+81-3-3595-2991, Fax:+81-3-3591-9817
Since April 1997, Professor at Keio University

[Total Budget for FY1994-1996]

30,028,000 Yen (FY1996 9,892,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　This research project aimed at 1) grasping changing population dynamics in China and Thailand in connection with urbanization process. 2) investigating the effects of changing environment on demographic and health behavior making use of DHS data sets. 3) examining the effects of urbanization on global warming by the Edmonds-Reilly model incorporating various scenarios. In China, excess population created by a natural increase rate over 1% in rural areas, and their subsequent urban-bound migration caused some problems both in urban and rural areas. In the rural Thailand, demographic transition completed by fertility decline in the early 1970s, in response to the end of encroachment of forest land in the 1960s. Increasing opportunities of work in rural areas have changed the meaning of labor migration to Bangkok from negative to positive. The analysis of DHS clarified the tendency of urban-bound migrants to settle under mal environments and their experiences of infant death were related. The incorporation of the sub model considering urbanization indicated the decrease of CO₂ emission by 22% in the year of 2050 in the whole world compared with the calculation from the original model.

[Key Words]

Asian Countries, Urbanization, Fertility, Global Warming Models, Demographic and Health Survey(DHS)