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24,081,000 Yen (FY1996 8,163,000 Yen)
At the global level food supply-demand situation is improving. At the beginning of the 1970s, 35% of the population in the developing countries were estimated at or below the starvation level of food intake. This rate has dropped to 20% by the beginning of the 1990s. However, this achievement was not taken place uniformly across the regions. Sub Saharan African countries and South Asian countries remain as the major food deficit areas. The improvement of the food security in these regions must be achieved, but this shall be made with a heavy constraint on their production activities. Because of the global warming, food and agricultural production in these regions are projected to decline. Global warming is estimated to increase their difficulties in improving the food securities in these regions.
With the increasing global temperature, grain yield increases its volatility in major exporting countries such as USA and Australia. The grain stock level sharply reduced in the middle of 1990s because of the expanded import demand in Asian countries associated with high economic growth. Under a market situation where stock levels of grains are keep declining, even a slight increase in yield volatility makes the global grain market more unstable than ever.
In order to evaluate effects of global warming on world food supply and demand situation, a world agricultural model has been developed. The world agricultural model predicted the increased international prices of wheat and corn. By the year 2025, demand for the imported grain and soybeans in developing countries is projected to increase by 58 million tons, mainly due to the supply shortages in Asian and Latin American countries. The inceased international prices, caused by the global warming, will seriously threaten the food security of the low income food deficit countries.
Global Warming, World Food Supply and Demand, World Agricultural Model, Food Security