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[B-15.2.2 Collaborative Studies for Developing AIM/Impact Model-Development of Agricultural Impact Models(Final Report)]

[Contact Person]

Hideo Harasawa, Head of Environmental Planning Section
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 JAPAN
Tel:+81-298-50-2507(direct), Fax:+81-298-58-2645
E-mail harasawa@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1995-1996]

37,834,000 Yen (FY1996 20,211,000 yen)

[Abstract]

　Recently, climate change impact on agriculture in the Asian-Pacific region is a matter of concern of policy-makers. To satisfy this urgent needs, we developed a long-term model of food demand and supply considering agriculture production and trade in the course of collaborative research with International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA). The model consists of three parts: estimation of potential crop productivity under climate change(AEZ), simulation of global market equilibrium of agricultural and other good(BLS) and land-use change model. In this study, we constructed the basic structure of these models and executed some experiment using the models.

[Key Words]

Climate change impact, the Asian-Pacific region, Agricultural production, GIS, BLS, AEZ