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[B-15.2.1 Collaborative Studies for Developing AIM/Impact Model - Development of Basic Models(Final Report)]

[Contact Person]

Hideo Harasawa, Head of Environmental Planning Section
National Institute for Environmental Studies
1 6-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba lbaraki 305 JAPAN
Tel:+81-298-50-2507(direct), Fax:+81-298-58-2645
E-mail harasawa@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1994-1996]

59,470,000 Yen (FY1996: 22,921,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　Climate impacts will be one of the serious concerns in the Asia-Pacific region, This region will experience dynamic development in the next century so that even without climate change, rapid growth in the demographic and economic situations of this area will cause drastic changes in the local and global environment. Climatic impacts will make the situation even more complex.
　The purpose of this research is to develop and improve the model that can assess the impact of global warming on agricultural production, water resources, vegetation, and human health in the region. First, an agricultural impact model was developed to estimate the potential change in yields of major grins caused by climate change in the region, and then it was improved in cooperation with researchers in China and India. A sub-national area-based geographical information database was also established for the impact model application in China and India.
　Secondly, using the above and other AIM/Impact modules, we estimated several kinds of direct physical impacts based on the probable range of global temperature increase, and identified the impact response curves of the climate changes. Major outcomes are summarized as follows:
1) Assuming global average temperature increase of 2℃, the median estimations of national average temperature increases ranged between 1.3〜2.7℃ in these regions. The precipitation changes ranged between +1〜17%. The variance among estimations is large, and the change in runoff ranged between -8〜67%.
2) Slight decrease in rice production is expected in most of the countries. The productivity of wheat will decrease significantly in Bangladesh, India and other tropical countries. The variance in productivity changes among estimations is large. The relation between the impact and global temperature change reveals no discernibly logical pattern by either crops or countries.

[Key Words]

AIM/Impact, Global Warming Impacts, Asian-Pacific Region, Agricultural Production, Geographical Information System