| |
|---|---|
 (512Kb)
|
18,056,000 Yen (FY1996 9,030,000 Yen)
The AIM/KOREA Model has been developed to analyze global environmental policies with local ones in Korea. Various scenarios are considered for analyzing policy options to reduce CO2 and SO2 emissions. AIM/KOREA CO2 module produces preliminary simulation results for the alternative scenarios of CO2 reduction policies in Korea. The Korean Model has been developed based on the AIM end-use model, by means of reforming sectoral module structures and parameters, changing technological lists and data, and extending transport modules in order to simulate Korean energy systems. It is estimated that 18.3 million tC(tons of carbon), 13.3% of CO2 emissions with the BaU(Business-as-Usual) scenario, can be reduced with the carbon tax and extension of payback period in 2010.
For analyzing local air pollution, the Global 2100 and AIM/KOREA SULFUR model has been used. The former is applied to evaluate relatively macro level policy measures, and the later is applied, to evaluate detailed policy measures. It is estimated that SO2 emissions increase to 5 million tons in 2020, which correspond to about three times of the base year emissions 1.61 million tons in 1992. In order to reduce SO2 concentration to the current Japanese level, 0.01ppm, it is necessary to introduce desulfurization plants together with improving energy efficiencies and replacing fuels with low sulfur contents. Policy options such as sulfur tax and proper subsidy in the steel industry and residential sectors, and the low sulfur Bunker-C option in the cement industry are fund to be very effective.
Korea, global warming, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, end-use model