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96,142,000 Yen (FY1996 33,685,000 Yen)
This project aims to develop a countrywide greenhouse gas emission model in the Asian-Pacific region, and to improve the global components of the emission and climate models in conjunction with research institutes in the Asian-Pacific region. During 1994-1996, CO2 emission models were developed for China, India, and Indonesia in cooperation with research institutes in these countries. Using these models, emission scenarios and policy options were estimated for each countries. In addition to the models in developing countries, Japanese CO2 emission model has been improved and applied to long-term predictions of emissions. This model has also been applied to evaluation of policy linkage of carbon tax to a special subsidy policy using a newly developed algorithm. These country models were linked to regional and global models in order to estimate the Asian-Pacific emission scenarios and global emission scenarios. Furthermore, The developmental process of Asian environmental policies were compared in order to extend the application of the CO2 emission model for assessment of local secondary effects. On the other hand, a global tropical deforestation model was created to estimate the carbon flux caused by deforestation, and a global terrestrial carbon cycle model was developed to estimate CO2 fertilization of terrestrial vegetation. Then, a simulation was made of temperature increases based on various recent emission scenarios and safe emissions corridors were estimated using the revised climate change and carbon cycle models.
AIM/emission, greenhouse gases, Asian-Pacific region, end-use model, energy technologies, integrated assessment model