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[B-5.5.1 Quantitative Evaluation of the Variation Characteristics of the Climate System Using a Climate Model]

[Contact Person]

Itsushi Uno
Atmospheric Environment Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba 305 Japan
Phone:+81-298-50-2414, Fax:+81-298-51-4732
intemet:iuno@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1994-1996]

18,659,000 Yen (FY1996 6,204,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　An atmospheric general circulation model for climate studies(CCSR/NIES AGCM) was used for quantitative evaluation of climate system variability. An initial ten year integration based on observed SST, and performed as part of the AMIP(atmospheric model intercomparison project) is presented here briefly. Analysis of a number of variables shows that the model provides a reasonable reproduction of observed climatology. The simulation of hydrological cycles and cloud-radiation interactions, while not unreasonable, leaves several problems in need of further improvement. Considering interannual variability, temporal correlations between simulated and observed anomalies are reasonably good in the tropics but not statistically significant in the mid-latitudes. In a second integration, the AGCM coupled to an ocean mixed layer model was used to examine climate change under conditions of doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration.

[Key Words]

climate model, atmospheric general circulation model, climate change, inter-annual variation, global warming