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[B-13.2 Study on the prediction of risks of global warming on malaria spreading]

[Contact Person]

Masaji Ono
Section Chief
Environmental Health Sciences Division, National Institute
for Environmental Studies, Environmental Agency
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 Japan
Tel:+81-298-50-2421 Fax:+81-298-50-2421
e-mail:ono@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1993-1995]

40,589,000 Yen (FY1995;13,397,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　Global warming will bring about the temperature elevation, and the habitat of vectors of infectious diseases such as malaria will spread in subtropical or temperate zone. The purpose of our study is to simulate the spreading of these diseases.
(1) We conducted some field survey and data collection on malaria endemics and distribution or density of Anopheles mosquito in southern China. We found that they showed a clear seasonal fluctuation depending on temperature and precipitation and we determined the threshold value of some important factors of malaria transmission.
(2) We carried out Anopheles mosquito survey in some islands in southern part of Japan, and we determined the marginal distribution of Anopheles minimus at present, and discussed the future spreading into northern part of Japan due to global warming.

[Key Words]

Malaria, Serological Epidemiology, Anopheles minimus, Temperature, Precipitation, Threshold