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[B-12.1 Prediction of the Effects of Global Warming on Ecosystem]

[Contact Person]

Keiko Kai
Senior Researcher
Global Environmental Division,
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Environment Agency,
1 6-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305 Japan
Tel. : +81-298-50-2524 Fax: +81-298-50-2569

[Total Budget for FY1993-1995]

38,788,000 Yen (FY1995; 13, 104,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　The effects of global warming on plants and ecosystems were investigated by following studies. a)The potential vegetation distribution shift in Japan and China caused by global climatic change was predicted by the direct transfer function approach. b)The probable effects of climate changes on geographical distribution of net primary productivity(NPP) of natural vegetation in East Asia were estimated. c)The maps of effects on phenology(the date of blooming, budding, leaf-color change, leaf-falling) in Japan were made. The strong correlations were found between phenological dates and latitude, longitude and height. d)Impacts of ENSO on plant phenology, agricultural production and natural hazard in East Asia were studied. e)Flora in the Nansei-shoto Islands was investigated to estimate the responses to climate change. f)The combined water temperature-ecological(WT-ECO) model was developed. The ECO model was used to estimate the effect of global warming on a lake's ecological dynamics.

[Key Words]

phenology, distributional shift, lake ecosystem, Net Primary Productivity