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[B-11.1 Prediction of Hydrological Cycle Change in Japanese River Catchment scale using the Hydro-meteorological Model]

[Contact Person]

Akira Terakawa
Hydrology Division, Public Works Research Institute, Ministry of Construction
1-Asahi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-64-2326, Fax +81-298-64-1168

[Total Budget for FY1993-1995]

13,924,000 Yen (FY1995 3,306,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　Purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of global warming on the hydrological cycle over Japan. To predict the effects of greenhouse gas induced climatic change, we often use General Circulation Models (hereinafter called GCMs). However, the grid size of GCMs is too course to estimate the change of precipitation over Japanese river catchment scale, i.e. 10²-l0³ km². So, we tried two kinds of approach to fulfill this gap. One approach is to analyze the historical relation between weather pattern and precipitation amount, which is then applied to the simulated weather pattern based on the output of GCM for generating the precipitation pattern under warming condition and for evaluating the change. The other approach is to use a hydrologic model coupled with a meso-scale atmospheric model, which utilizes the output of GCM as a boundary condition and can simulate the change of precipitation, temperature and soil moisture under the condition of doubled concentration of CO₂. Simulated results of both approaches using the output of MRI-GCM, developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, can be summarized that the annual precipitation amount in the warming world would decrease in the most part of Japan Island, though we have to keep in mind the limitation of the ability of the present GCM to simulate the growth of typhoon.

[Key Words]

Global warming, Hydrological cycle, GCM, Hydro-meteorological model, Weather pattern