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[B-15.3 Development of Socio-Economic Scenarios for AIM Simulations]

[Contact Person]

Tsuneyuki Morita
Head of Global Warming Response Team
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency
Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-51-6111(Ext.393) Fax +81-298-58-2645

[Total Budget for FY1991-1993]

24,011,000 Yen (FY1993 8,649,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　This project assesses scenarios of socio-economic development, technological improvements and other related scenarios for prediction of GHG emissions and global warming impacts in the Asian-Pacific region. The basic information necessary for developing the Asian-Pacific scenarios has been collected for 18 countries in the region. It has been analyzed to identify the characteristics of each country for energy use, industry, and lifestyle so as to create scenarios for each country's socio-economic growth. Previous global scenarios have been reviewed, and the consistency between population growth and economic growth has been analyzed using a new model in order to prepare an appropriate scenario for population growth and economic growth. Finally, the sensitivities of the uncertainty caused by the above socio-economic scenarios, as well as those from natural factors have been estimated for GHG emissions and climatic changes using the world module of the AIM model.

[Key Words]

Socio-Economic Scenario, Asian-Pacific Region, Population Growth, Economic Growth, Emission Scenarios, Climate Change Scenarios