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[B-15.2 Development of AIM/impact Model]

[Contact Person]

Tsuneyuki Morita
Head of Global Warming Response Team
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-51-6111(ext.393), Fax +81-298-58-2645

[Total Budget for FY1991-1993]

21,536,000 Yen (FY1993 7,537,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　The objective of this project is to develop the AIM/impact model for scenario analysis of global warming impacts on the Asian-Pacific region. AIM/impact is designed to calculate the impacts in primary production -water supply, agricultural production, wood supplies, etc.- and then make predictions of higher-order impacts on the regional economy. AIM/impact is linked to AIM/emission through a GCM experiment which is based on the Greenhouse Gas emission scenarios calculated by AIM/emission. Various economic and environmental data for the region has been gathered and filed in a special data-base. As well simulation models to estimate water resource changes, vegetation changes and Malaria spread caused by global warming have been developed. The climate change scenario was prepared using GCM experiments by GFDL, CCC, and other organizations. Using these scenarios, we have simulated changes in catchment water run-off, the survival status of vegetation and the reproduction rates of Malaria for all special units of water catchments and vegetation types region in the region. These will be linked to higher-order impact models to estimate impacts on the regional economy.

[Key Words]

AIM/impact, Global Warming Impacts, Asian-Pacific Region, Water Resource Changes, Vegetation Changes, Malaria Diffusion