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[B-15.1 Development of AIM/emission Model]

[Contact Person]

Tsuneyuki Morita
Head of Global Warming Response Team
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-51-6111(Ext.393), Fax +81-298-58-2645

[Total Budget for FY1991-1993]

65,690,000 Yen (FY1993 22,759,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　The objective of this project is to develop the AIM/emission model for scenario analysis of GHGs emissions in the Asian-Pacific region. The AIM/emission model is comprised of Asian-Pacific country models, and a World model which ensures interactions between these regional and country models are consistent and links the AIM/emission model to the AIM/climate model. The major component of the country model is an end-use energy demand model. In this model, energy demand is calculated by multiplying the Energy Service(calculated using the Energy Service sub-module) by an Energy Efficiency Factor which is the product of assumptions about the introduction of new technologies for energy conservation(decided by Technology Selection sub-module) as influenced by energy prices. So far, a prototype model has been completed and applied to Indonesia, China, and Japan. We are now developing Japanese, Korean and other country models. A World model has been developed to estimate GHG emissions in other regions and to simulate global GHG emissions. GHG emissions in the Asian-Pacific region and on a global level have been estimated using these models. Policy options to reduce GHG emissions in the region have also been analyzed.

[Key Words]

Greenhouse Gases, Asian-Pacific Region, End-use Model, Energy Conservation Technologies, Integrated Model