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[B-14.2 Evaluation of Measures to Cope with Global Warming - Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy System]

[Contact Person]

Kosuke Kurokawa
Chief, Energy and Information Science Section
Energy Division, Electrotechnical Laboratory
Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, MITI
1-1-4 Umezono, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-54-5411, Fax +81-298-58-5829

[Total Budget for FY1990-1993]

27,765,000 Yen (FY1993 6,782,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　A method is presented to evaluate countermeasures to the global warming available in the Japanese energy system today and in the near future. The main tool for the method is an ETL version of linear programming software MARKAL, which was developed at Electrotechnical Laboratory to study the Japanese energy system under Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project by IEA. The scope of the MARKAL model covers resource extraction, energy transformation, distribution, storage and utilization in the Japanese energy system from the year 1988 to the year 2032. By minimizing the total CO₂ emission from a future energy system up to the year 2032 to bring annual CO₂ emission per capita in the year 2010 down to the current level, it is shown that the major part of the reduction is achieved in the transformation sector where electricity generation accounts for the most part of CO₂ emission. Technology options in the electricity generation sector are examined from the standpoints of potential to reduce CO₂ emission and of cost-effectiveness both economic and environmental obtained from the results of the analysis by MARKAL. Structural change in the total energy system brought about by the use of a specific countermeasure is closely examined and suitable combination of supply and demand technologies are discussed. Possible reduction of CO₂ emission by the use of imported hydrogen is also discussed.

[Key Words]

Technology Evaluation, Systems Analysis, Cost-Effective, CO₂ Emissions Reduction