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[B-10.1 Estimation of Influence of Sea Level Rise in Coastal Regions]

[Contact Person]

Takekazu Akagiri
Head, Second Geographic Division
Geographic Department, Geographical Survey Institute
Ministry of Construction
1 Kitasato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305 Japan
Phone +81-298-64-1111(Ext.641), Fax +81-298-64-1804

[Total Budget for FY1990-1992]

47,350,000 Yen

[Abstract]

　Rapid sea level risc(SLR) induced by global warmiing has been predieted in recent years. According to IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) medium estimation, the rate of SLR would be 6mm per year during 21st century and the total SLR by 2100 would be 65cm. Global warming and SLR would change climates and hydrologic conditions in coastal regions around the worldwidely. These changes will induce natural disasters such as flood, innerflood, storm surge, salinization, along coastal regions. In order to adopt appropriate measures to these disasters and other effects of SLR, assessments of effects of SLR should be implemented.
　We studied the method for grasping coastal properties which would be drowned in future under the "do-nothing" regime. First, acquiring ground elevation data, we can confirm the inundated area in the future. Processing land use data and socio-economic statistics, we can assign particular property density(unit value of property), to each landuse. Finally, we could get the lost properties by multiplying inundated area for each landuse by property density.
　We selected the studied area both in Japan and Thailand. In Japan, we studied Kumamoto plain in Kyushu in 1990 and 91 FY, and Nohbi plain in Honshu in 1992FY. In Thailand, we studied Bangkok area in 1990 and 91 FY and Bangpakong area, east of Bangkok, in 1992FY. In all the studied areas, we estimated the lost properties and affected population.

[Key Words]

Sea Level Rise, Ground elevation, Landuse, Lost property, Remote Sensing