研究成果報告書 E92B0910.HTM

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[B-9.1 Evaluation and Prediction of the Global Warming Effects on the Distribution of the Natural Vegetation]


[Contact Person]


Kenji Omasa
Section Director, Environmental Plant Science Section,
Environmental Biology Division,
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Environment Agency
16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305 Japan
Tel:+81-298-51-6111(Ext.592), Fax:+81-298-51-4732


[Total Budget for FY1990-1992]


33,340,000 Yen


[Abstract]


 For the purpose of evaluation and prediction of the global warming effects on the distribution of the natural vegetation, studies as follows were carried out.
1) The distribution of Japanese natural vegetation was modeled on two spacial levels; "class" level and "order" or "alliance" level, and potentiai shift of natural vegetation in Japan caused by global warming was estimated by the steady-state correlation approach.
2) The possible changes of phenology (the date of blooming, budding, leaf-color change, leaf-falling) were predicted based on the correlative relationships between the phenological observation data and the monthly meteorological factors.
3) The long-term effect of high temperature condition on the dry matter growth and bud formation of Pleuropteropyrum weyrichii var. alpinum was clarified through experiments. The leaf-temperature of Pleuropteropyrum weyrichii var. alpinum growing around 2,600m of Mt.Fuji, which location is the southern limit of its distribution, was measured.
4) Present situation of the populations and their surrounding habitat at the southern limits and vicinities of numerous temperate species were investigated in the field. Some of the populations were studied taxonomically. These data were prepared in a computer using data-file.
5) An experiment was attempted to examine the impact on the plants under the increased condition of CO2 and ozone. The result of the experiment shows that the productivity of plants does not necessarily increase in the case of the high ozone concentration even if the CO2 concentration increases.


[Key Words]


Distributional Shift, Complex Effect, Phenology, Southern Limit, Natural Vegetation