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[Ｈ−３.２　Analysis on Land-use Change at Lower Yangtze River Basin due to Industrialization and Urbanization]


[Contact person]

      Kuninori OTSUBO
      Vice Division Director
      National Institute for Environment Studies
      Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan
      Tel: +81-298-50-2417 Fax: +81-298-50-2576
      E-mail: kuninori@nies.go.jp


[Total Budget for FY1998-2000]

　5,289,000 Yen
　(FY 2000: 1,093,000 Yen)

［Abstract］

　We have analyzed land-use change in the Lower Yangtze River Basin by means of remote sensing and GIS, and developed a model to estimate the amount and position of arable land to be converted into urban area in the basin with100-m grid resolution. We found that urban expansion was closely related to population growth in urban area. We assumed that the population growth could be dealt as diffusion process and have developed a two dimensional diffusion model for city expansion, assuming that the diffusion coefficient depends on geographical conditions and socio-economic factors of each county. Using the simulation result for a given total future population each county, we produced a 2-km grid map of arable land to be extinguished and those of food production and consumption.


［Key Words］

　China, Lower Yangtze River Basin, Urban Expansion, Diffusion Model