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[Ｈ−３.１　Geographically Explicit Long-term Projection of Land-use Change in China]

[Contact person]

[Total Budget for FY1998-2000]

　58,573,000 Yen
　(FY 2000: 17,386,000 Yen)

［Abstract］

　We produced many 20-km grid maps of China about natural and socioeconomic factors related to land use/cover change. We have also produced 2-km grid maps of land use for the Yangtze River Delta and Northern and Northeastern Parts of China. The 20-km China maps were used for identifying vulnerable areas against agricultural development and discussing national self-sufficiency issue of food. The 2-km maps were used-for studying land use change, especially urbanization this time, for typical areas.
　According to our analysis using 20-km grid maps, China has enjoyed self-sufficiency of food as of 1995s and will enjoy even at 2025. About this result, we recognize the need of more reliable date for current and future food demand in China. In terms of case studies of Yangtze River Delta, through field surveys and interviews and the analysis of statistics and the 2-km grid maps, we have found that each town in the delta targeted to expand its town center first for its development and identified eight driving factors for the rapid expansion. The eight factors have interacted each other and formed a good chain of development in each town. We also have analyzed land-use changes in the southern part of Beijing City and determined the factors underlying those changes. The underlying factors are: policy, population, urbanization, technology and resources. The land-use changes under socialistic economy were based on the linkage of policy, technology, resources and urbanization; and under the present socialistic market economy, on the linkage of policy, technology, resources, urbanization and population.

［Key Words］

　China, Land Use/Cover Change, Geo Referenced, Digital Map, Food Balance