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[B-4.6 Estimation of Carbon Sink Distribution Using Inverse and Forward Models]

[Contact Person]

Hiroshi KANZAWA
Head, Atmospheric Physics Section
Atmospheric Environment Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies
16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan
Tel: +81-298-50-2431 Fax: +81-298-50-2960
E-Mail: kanzawa@nies.go.jp

[Total Budget for FY1999-FY2000]

25,118,000 Yen (FY2000; 12,564,000 Yen)

[Abstract]

　We aim at establishing methods of estimating carbon sink distribution on a continental scale from carbon dioxide concentration measurement network and from meteorological data using global tracer transport models. Global tracer transport models are thus developed. We use recent carbon dioxide concentration observations over Asia and the inverse models participating in the inverse model intercomparison project of TransCom to improve estimates of the Asian carbon dioxide sources and sinks. The inclusion of the carbon dioxide concentration data in West and Central Siberia, in Japan, and on the Tokyo-Sydney route in addition to the TransCom standard observation data set reduces uncertainty of the estimated regional carbon dioxide fluxes for Boreal Asia (Siberia), Temperate Asia, and Southeast Asia. The largest effect is observed for emission/sink estimate for Boreal Asia region where introducing the added observations in Siberia reduces the source uncertainty by almost half. The addition of the Siberian airborne observations leads to extra sinks on Boreal Asia of 0.2 GtC/year. The local carbon dioxide circulation model with horizontal resolution of 60 km is integrated over the Asian Continent for 1 year to evaluate carbon dioxide exchange rate between the atmosphere and land surface ecosystems. It is necessary to evaluate a precision of the estimated carbon dioxide exchange rate by the model in comparison with observed data of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and flux. Using a land ecosystem model, a global mapping of carbon dioxide exchange rate between the atmosphere and land surface ecosystem is made mainly on forests. Furthermore, interannual variations of responses of the carbon dioxide exchange rates are investigated using three kinds of meteorological re-analysis data, and the results depend quantitatively on the selection of the re-analysis data.

[Key Words]

Carbon Sink Distribution, Carbon Budget, Tracer Transport Model, Local Carbon Dioxide Circulation Model, Land Ecosystem Model