Asia-Pacific Seminar Archives

4th Asia Pacific Seminar on Climate Change 5-17 March 1995, Bangkok Thailand Report

CONTENTS MENU

ORGANISATION OF THE SEMINAR
RECENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS TO COPE WITH GLOBAL WARMING

STATUS OF NATIONAL ACTIVITIES TO COPE WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

REGIONAL CO-OPERATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION
SPECIAL SESSION: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
ADOPTION OF THE REPORT

1.ORGANISATION OF THE SEMINAR

The Fourth Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change, held at the United Nations Conference Centre in Bangkok from 15-17 March, 1995, was organised by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Environment Agency of Japan (EAJ) and co-sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme and the Royal Thai Government.

A.Attendance

The Seminar was attended by representatives of the following members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Netherlands, Nepal. Papua New Guinea, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United States of America and Vietnam.

The following United Nations bodies, specialised agencies and inter-governmental organisations were represented: World Health Organisation (WHO), Interim Secretariat of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); Organisation on Economic CO-operation and Development (OECD); South Asia CO-operative Environment Programme (SACEP); and South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). The Seminar was also attended by resource persons from the United States of America Japan and Thailand.

B.Opening Statements

His Excellency Mr. Suwat Liptapanlop, Minister of Science, Technology and Environment of the Royal Government of Thailand, in the keynote address, welcomed all the participants and thanked ESCAP and the Government of Japan for their support for the seminar. His Excellency commented on the timeliness of the seminar, with the First Conference of the parties to a Framework Convention on Climate Change to he held in early April, and highlighted the role of the seminar in raising awareness of the critical issues arising from the Eleventh INC meeting in New York, especially issues related to the capacities of the countries to address their objectives under FCCC.

His Excellency reaffirmed that the Royal Thai Government not only recognised the critical nature of tile problem of global warming, but also has taken positive action to curtail and adapt to the implications of climate change. Notably, the establishment of the National Committee on Climate Change operating under the National Environment Board, is regarded as essential to the enhancing of institutional structures for implementation of activities relate to climate change; as well as acting as a forum for formulation of related policies and operational initiatives. The Committee also serves as a monitoring body to ensure that institutional activities are designed to support the Government's commitments to the FCCC.

His Excellency emphasised that while Thailand is aware of its own commitments under the FCCC, Thailand will continue to protect its own interests, particularly those interests that are well within its national jurisdiction. His Excellency further stressed that application of enforcement measures of international conventions must be fair and take into account common but differentiated responsibilities of all nations. Finally His Excellency urged all participants at the Seminar to contribute fully to the discussions in the Seminar, and to join the search for bold and new initiatives.

Ms Seiko Takahashi, Acting Executive Secretary of ESCAP, in opening the Seminar, welcomed all the participants to the Fourth Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change, thanked the Minister of Science, Technology and Environment (MOSTE) of the Royal Thai Government for his attendance, and the Government of Japan for providing support for the organisation of the seminar.

The Acting Executive Secretary commented on the significance of global warming in the Asia-Pacific region and noted that about half the members of ESCAP have ratified the convention. The Seminar is particularly timely as the First Conference of the Parties is due to take place in Berlin from the 28th March to the 7th April, 1995. Fur4ler, she stressed that there was an immediate need in the region to carry out a precise evaluation of existing capacities, and to design and strengthen efforts to raise awareness and build expertise for the preparation of national inventories on sources and sinks of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). The uncertainties surrounding climate change scenarios are well recognised. These pose problems on two fronts: the range of estimates of climate change and related phenomena, and evaluation of physical and socio-economic impacts.

The Acting Executive Secretary noted that this seminar is representative of the general, essential trend towards international and regional co-operation in addressing global climate change issues, and drew attention of the conference on the following points:

Promotion of further understanding and information exchange on likely impacts of global climate change;
Promotion of better understanding and adaptation of methodologies which are practical, comparable and reflect the realities of the developing countries for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories in the region;
Review of capacity building requirements to better assess policy options in respect of climate change;
Review of the extent of regional co-operation and identify practical and effective measures to foster available initiatives avoid duplication of efforts and facilitate synergies.

In his statement, Mr. Takashi Matsumura of the Environment Agency of Japan, noted that all countries at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 affirmed their commitment to positive action towards sustainable development. Three years on, it is recognised that while much progress has been made, we are faced by still greater challenges. He noted that the environmental problems before us have a broad range in terms of space and time; from local to global levels and from present to future generations. It is essential to re-examine existing measures to tackle these problems in a sustainable manner and to formulate new policy measures to address these challenges. In response to these challenges the Government of Japan enacted the Basic Environment Law in 1993, and is now moving on towards the next step, namely development of environmental policy through to the mid-2lst Century under the Basic Environment Plan. Under this Plan, Japan will endeavour to reformulate socio-economic activities so that they are environmentally-sustainable. With regard to global warming, Japan has been making efforts to limit its CO2 emissions with the national Action Program to Arrest Global Warming established in October 1990. Japan aims ultimately to attain the objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and will make further efforts to contribute the new international framework to arrest global warming.

Mr. Matsumura recognised the critical role which the Asia-Pacific region will play in solving the problem of global warming, and while recognising the environmental, cultural and social diversity of the region emphasised the importance of regional co-operation and mutual dependence. Consequently, this Fourth Asia-Pacific Seminar on Global Climate Change has a critical role to play in fostering regional co-operation and exchange of information.

Mr. Mitsuo Usuki, Deputy Regional Representation of United Nations Environment Programme Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific emphasised UNEP's support for the objectives of the seminar. UNEP intends to place a high priority on supporting institutional and capacity building through workshops and seminars in order to foster international co-operation in the development of greenhouse inventories and national response strategies in the region. While recognising the limitations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Mr. Usuki reaffirmed UNEP's support for the FCCC as an important step towards achieving the goal of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Mr. Usuki then outlined the steps which UNEP's regional office is taking to support compliance with the FCCC's commitments by governments within the region.

C.Election of officers

The Seminar elected Mr. Saburo Kato (Japan) as Chairperson, Mr. Chong Ah Look (Malaysia) and Mr. S. Mushtaq H. Razvi (Pakistan) as Vice-Chairpersons, and Mr. Raj Rishi (Fiji) as Rapporteur.

D.Adoption of the agenda

The meeting adopted the following agenda:

Opening session.
Election of officers.
Adoption of the agenda.
Recent international developments to cope with global warming:
1. Status of implementation of the Untied Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
2. Progress of activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;
3. AOSIS Protocol;
Status of national activities to cope with global climate change:
1. Communications by Annex I countries to COP-1;
2. Report on national activities.
Regional co-operation on global climate change:
1. Overview presentation by ESCAP;
2. Presentation by other organisations;
3. CHC emissions and sinks inventories in Asia and the Pacific;
4. Round table discussion.
Special session: Assessment of impacts of climate change.
Conclusion and recommendations.
Adoption of the meeting report and closing of the Seminar.

2.RECENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS TO COPE WITH GLOBAL WARMING

(Item 4 of the agenda)

A.Status of implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Mr.Jacob Swager, Principal Officer (Commitments), UNFCCC Interim Secretariat Presented the status of implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention had been ratified by 122 countries, including a large number of Asian and Pacific countries. The early implementation of the Convention has been prepared by the Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee for the FCCC, which completed its work in February 1995 at its eleventh Session. The Conference of the Parties (COP) win take over responsibilities at its first session, 28 March - 7 April in Berlin. Two main issues on its agenda are the possible mandate for a process leading to a protocol containing new commitments for developed countries, and the modalities for 'joint implementation' of activities. Other issues include decisions on the rules of procedure, and on the budget and the secretariat.

He further mentioned that developed country Parties had to submit their first national communications, starting 21 September 1994. 15 national communications have been reviewed and win be submitted to in-depth reviews over the next half year. Experts nominated by governments, assisted by those from international organisations and co-ordinated by the interim secretariat are undertaking the technical review and win submit their findings to the COP4. The compilation and synthesis that has been prepared on these 15 communications (representing 41% of global CO2 emissions) show that the majority of these countries will need to introduce additional policies and measures in order to return in 2000 to 1990 levels of CO2, or of greenhouse gas emissions in general.

Other communications from developed countries are being submitted and will likewise be reviewed. First communications from developing countries may he due from 21 March 1997 on, and the COP at its second session, mid-1996, will set guidelines for preparing such communications and for their subsequent consideration.

Summary of discussions

On a remark on the difference in quantities of greenhouse gas emitted by developed and developing countries and how responses differed between the two types of countries, the Seminar noted that county studies have not yet been received from the developing countries, their communications being required by the FCCC after a period of three years rather than one year as for the Annex I countries. Consequently, it is not yet possible to say exactly how the response strategies will differ, although as their commitments differ under the FCCC and the nature of their sources and sinks are different from the Annex I countries. Undoubtedly, response strategies will also be different.

B.Progress of activities of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Director, Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Environmental Agency of Japan presented the recent progress of IPCC activities. He noted the importance of the series of Seminars in disseminating information on the IPCC reports and methodologies. The IPCC is currently preparing its Second Assessment Report (SAR) to be published at the end of 1995. This report, which will update the 1990 Report, will synthesise the findings of each of the IPCC working groups: WGI (Scientific Assessment). WGII (assessment of impacts and response strategies), and WGIII (cross-cutting socio-economic issues). Some of these reports are now at the government review stage. After the adoption of the individual reports at each working group plenary this summer and autumn, the SAR is planned to he approved in the IPCC plenary session in December 1995.

Prior to the work on the SAR, IPCC adopted its special 1994 report at its plenary session of November 1994. This report consisting of four parts, was the response to an urgent request from the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to be submitted to the First Conference of Parties (COP) in March 1995 in Berlin. The four parts of the report are as follows:

IPCC/OECD Methodology for GHG Inventory compiled by WGI.
IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations.
An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios.
Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

The major new results since the IPCC 1992 Report are, in summary: revised values for Global Warming Potentials (GWPs); revised methane GWP; revised levels at which stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations could he attained; improved estimation of forcing by aerosols; a finding that the recent low growth rate of carbon dioxide concentrations is not unusual; a finding that there has been a sharp reduction in the methane growth rate; findings concerning the impacts of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on climate; a more accurate estimate of the global carbon budget.

In October 1994, IPCC held a trans-working group Workshop on Article 2 at Fortaleza, Brazil, These discussions and their outcome are presented in the IPCC 1995 Report. Dr. Nishioka identified some of the critical issues to be discussed in the second assessment reports. For example, WGIII discusses the issue of equity and the question of whether we should prefer adaptation to mitigation when there are the broad scientific uncertainties associated with climate change research. According to available data it is developing countries which bear more severe adverse impacts than the developed countries. The position of developing countries is further complicated by the weakness of their capacity to adapt especially where expensive technological options are required. Consequently, preference should be given to mitigation options rather than adaptation.

The report will suggest, inter alia that:

An extensive array of technologies and policy measures capable of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is available. However, social institutional, financial, market and legislative barriers to their application and implementation limit their actual contribution to mitigation, i.e. realised potential is often significantly less than technical potential:
Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions re likely to he easier to implement if they are designed to simultaneously address other concerns that impede sustainable development. They will he more effective if they use well-integrated mixes of policies, tailored for local situations and developed through consultation with stakeholders; and
Continued commitment to research is essential if technologies are to be developed that will led to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

In conclusion, Mr. Nishioka remarked that given the key role which scientific findings play in analysing phenomena and assisting in suggesting possible response options, IPCC is likely to become all the more important at the time when practical implementation is required under the FCCC. He further stressed the critical role of collaboration among countries and international organisations in the region in order to respond to the challenges of the effects of climate change.

C.AOSIS Protocol

The delegate from Fiji called the attention of the Seminar on the fact that the Alliance of Small Island States submitted to the eleventh session of INC a draft Protocol to the United Nations FCCC on Greenhouse Emission Reduction. The draft Protocol aims at strengthening the commitments of developed country parties under FCCC with respect to commitments already included in the Convention. The protocol addressed concern of vital importance for Small Island States and reflected their urgency for adoption of strengthened mitigation measures. The delegate expressed the urgency for Asian and Pacific countries to give serious consideration to supporting initiatives to agree to negotiation and early adoption of a Protocol to UNFCCC.

3.STATUS OF NATIONAL ACTIVITIES TO COPE WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

(Item 5 of the agenda)

A.Communications by Annex I countries to COP-1

[Australia]
In accordance with the provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia submitted its National Communication to the FCCC Secretariat by the deadline of 21 September 1994. The country delegate presented an overview of the process involved in preparing Australia's National Communication as provided. The aim of the Australian Government was to produce Australia's National Communication in an open and transparent manner. This was achieved through a consultative process involving key stakeholder groups. It was hoped that this would ensure the accuracy and completeness of the National Communication. Information sources used in preparing Australia's National Communication involved Government Departments, submissions from key industry and conservation stakeholder groups and a number of national strategies and policies including Australia's National Greenhouse Response Strategy, the National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development and the National Forest Policy Statement. Australia's Greenhouse Gas Inventory constituted a major input to the National Communication. An Australian inventory methodology was developed according to IPCC guidelines and taking specific Australian local conditions into account. This methodology was subject to a public review process. Work on refining inventory compilation and methodology development activities was continuing. Emissions projections scenarios to the year 2015 were part of the inventory compilation and development project. Emissions projections were essential to the assessment of the effects of policies and measures on future greenhouse gas emissions. A brief outline of Australia's National Communication noted that the document represented a detailed examination of Australia's approach to meeting its obligations under the FCCC, setting out the strategies and measures taken to address the enhanced greenhouse effect and providing detailed information on factors within Australia that influence the nature of Australia's response greenhouse gas emissions. Information presented in the National Communication included Australia's greenhouse gas inventory and projected emissions; Australia's vulnerabilities to both the impacts of climate change and to potential impacts of response measures; outline of research activities; description of greenhouse education and information activities; assistance provided to developing countries; and future directions Australia intended to take.

[Japan]
Japan ratified the UNFCCC in May, 1993, and has been actively implementing policy and measures to curb global warming under the National Action Programme. Of Japan's total CO2 emissions, more than 90% comes from fossil fuel combustion. Of the sectoral sources of CO2 emissions, the industrial sector is important being a source of about 40% of total CO2 emissions. However, the CO2 emissions from transportation and residential/commercial sectors have been increasing remarkably. Therefore, further efforts addressing those activities were needed. In accordance with its obligations to the FCCC, Japan submitted its First Communication Report in September 1994. Some of the lessons learned through the experience of preparing this Report may he helpful for other countries of the region. These are as follows:

First the Inter-Ministerial Council was important to the preparation of the Report. The Council was originally established for domestic purposes. It was also, however, quite an effective tool for preparing the Report;

Second, the IPCC/OECD Guidelines of Inventory were quite useful for Japan to draft an inventory of GHGs. While Japan did not have any difficulties in applying the guidelines, the flexibility of the method should he maintained as it is now; and

Third, as far as Japan is concerned, there is a fair amount of scientific information and data about CO2 emissions. Japan's knowledge about methane (CFL) and N2O is relatively limited. There is a need for data accumulation in these fields. The Environment Agency of Japan is ready to launch co-operative works in this region.

B.Report on national activities

Country experts from participating countries presented overviews on the status of national activities on climate change.

[Bangladesh]
There have been a number of studies conducted in Bangladesh on climate change issues Latest among them were (i) Country Study on Bangladesh (1993) and (ii) Climate Change in Asia: Bangladesh (1994), both undertaken with technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank; and (m) Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas to Sea-Level Rise and Other Effects of Global Climate Change (Pilot Study- Bangladesh) (1994) under assistance from the Royal Government of the Netherlands. Currently another study has been initiated with support from the Untied States Country Study Initiatives. The present study captioned 'Bangladesh Climate Change Study' aims at detailed study on the subject. The components of the study are: (a) Energy Emission, (b) Coastal Zone Vulnerability, (c) Recommending Adaptation and Mitigation Options, and (d) Awareness Raising and Dissemination Programme. All the four components involved a significant number of non-governmental organisations along with concerned government agencies. In defining and making general observations on greenhouse gases, the study has listed CO2, CO, CH4, CFCs and VOCs among Radiatively Active Trace Gases (RATGS) to inventory them as GHGs for the purpose of quantitative studies. The principal anthropogenic sources of emissions were identified as (a) Primary Energy Sources (commercial fuels like natural gas, imported oil and coal used for generation of heat, steam and electricity as Secondary Energy), b) Traditional Energy Sources (Biomass combustion - mostly rural energy), and c) Other Emission Sources (CFCs, agriculture, ruminant livestock etc.). Natural gas is Bangladesh's only commercially Fossil Fuel Primary Energy (FFPE). Its utilisation accounts for 43% for electricity generation, 34% for fertiliser production, 16% for industry, 2% for commercial and 5% for household purposes. Available national statistics is indicative of total Traditional Energy consumption of over 10 million tons of coal equivalent of energy from various sources of biomass. Bangladesh does not produce any CFCs, and the import of these substances is very limited - negligible compared with the developed countries for example. A programme has been initiated under UNEP funds to replace the only CFC-based aerosol plant with an LPG propellant-based unit. The refrigerator and service sector has been proposed to be treated as an essential sector to meet the development goals of Bangladesh.
The approach and methodology of the Emission Inventory of the current on-going study follows IPCC methodology. However, a major data-gap exists with respect to methane emissions from rice-fields, wetlands, and ruminant livestock. The methodology consists of an Input-Output Model. Inputs were systematised under two broad heads (a) secondary data and (b) supplementary primary data and were to he fed to a computer simulation model (the G2S2 model developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute) and subsequently quantified as Outputs. The emission inventory exercise would help implement county case study on Bangladesh in the Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALCAS) Project supported by ADB.

[China]
The Co-ordinating Group on Climate Change was established under the State Council of China to oversee studies climate change issues in China. There were four sub-ordinate working groups:
- Working Group 1: responsible for scientific assessment on climate change and study on a General Circulation Model. Responsible units were the National Bureau of Meteorology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
- Working Group 2: is responsible for an environmental impact assessment studies on climate change in China Responsible units were the National Environment Protection Agency and the Department of Social Development of the State Science and Technology Commission. This will be submitted to IPCC.
- Working Group 3: was responsible for scenario studies. These would examine the social effects of climate change and adaptation measures. The Energy Research Institute of the State Planning Commission is the responsible agency.
- Working Group 4: was responsible for negotiation. The Department of Legislation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was the responsible agency.
Working Group 1 and NEPA would also he responsible for the compilation of the inventory of GHG sources and sinks, the design of control measures for GHG emissions, and the design of policy and legislation for the control and prevention of environmental pollution. Research efforts which have been completed to date included: a preliminary inventory of GHG emissions from energy sources and industries, agriculture sources, from forest and land use.

However, coefficients used for calculating CO2 emissions were derived from developed countries and have been found to he of limited application to China The key problems identified were: (1) China had more than 7 types of coal, some of which do not meet those specifications defined in the IPCC/OECD manual; and (2) the coal oxidation factor is quite different from the emission factors of advanced countries - the combustion efficiency of facilities in China was far lower than in more advanced countries. Consequently, there was a need for primary research to provide more accurate emission factors for China It is China's intention that a complete inventory of GHG sources and sinks he compiled using IPCC/OECD methodologies, but using emission factors appropriate to the local situation.

There were plans, therefore, to undertake primary research in the following areas: 1) CO2 emissions from energy, including boilers and home stoves (the combustion efficiency of power stations is in accordance with default values provided); and 2) CH4 emissions from wet rice cultivation (while work has been undertaken in the South and the North of China, there remained some uncertainties which have not yet been resolved).

China is a large consumer of energy with coal being the main form of energy (about 75% of energy generation is from coal). During the rapid economic growth of the last few years energy consumption has greatly increased with an average growth rate of 9%. As this had considerable implications for global climate change, China had been making efforts to save energy and increase energy efficiency. The energy intensity of development has been reduced significantly and is expected to decline further. As energy accounts for 80% of GHG emissions in China, it was critical that further energy conservation measures were introduced.

[Fiji]
Fiji is a signatory to both the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) of the United Nations and the Montreal Protocol and therefore obliged to observe the regulations. The country has instituted a programme whereby Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) will he eliminated by the year 2000 by imposition of import restrictions. All ODS are imported. To inventory Greenhouse Gas (GHG) sources and sink, a work programme has been put in place with appropriate funding from the United States Country Programme. There is reason to believe that GHG sinks for Fiji for exceed emissions or sources. Therefore, the country is a net sink especially so with 90% of its area being ocean. Large areas of tropical rain forest and planted forests add to the size of the sink. GHG sources are small except for power generation by the use of imported petroleum products that is used for energy generation. Coal and fuel wood form a minor GHG emitter while combustion of imported coal and bagasse a by-product of sugar industry is the second GHG source. With a large sink and yet threat of high risks from climate change, Fiji has to look for adaptation assessment to mitigate likely sea level rises and an intensive programme to study one island which has been earmarked with the hope of applying the findings to other similar island situations. Fiji comprises of many islands.

[India]
India ratified the FCCC on November 1, 1993. India actively participated in the INC and continues to serve on its Bureau as Vice-Chairman. India is also serving as Vice Chairman of the IPCC Sub Group A "Energy & Industry" on Working Group II. India fully supported the FCCC, was committed to its prompt start and continued to participate in international efforts to find a co-ordinated, equitable and effective set of actions to combat the threat of Climate Change. India recognised the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but felt that countries should share the burden of abatement in a way that reflects their relative levels of development and differential capacities. India's past and present contributions to global CO2 emissions were negligible. India was preparing its communication of information under articles 4 & 12 of the Convention and intends to meet its deadline for submission (i.e. 21 March, 1997). The preparation of a national inventory of net emissions for a vast developing county like India is an evolving exercise which will have to involve original research embodying field measurements and strengthening of endogenous capacities. India was fortunate in having almost 125 years of continuous instrument records of climatological parameters at a large number of locations within the country. Proxy data, historical accounts and the instrumental records of over a century reveal that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has exhibited stable long term characteristics since historical times with extremes (floods and droughts) being a part of its natural variability. Total gross emissions from sources roughly amount to 2.2 per cent of global emissions. The current gross CO2 emissions per capita (carbon equivalent) in India was 0.2 T/yr, against the world average of 1.2 T/yr. At present, coal accounts for about 60 per cent of fossil fuel use in caloric terms, followed by liquid petroleum, about 30 per cent, the rest being accounted for by natural gas. Steel, Power, Cement, and the Railways are the major industrial consumers of coal, and account for over 70 per cent of its domestic production. In a recent study at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, found the marginal net sequestration of 5 Mt of carbon in forests in the reference year 1986. Effective forestry and conservation legislation have played a major role in maintaining and enhancing India's carbon sinks. Other sinks include the extensive oceans around the Indian sub-continent.

[Indonesia]
Most of Indonesia's agricultural land lied in low-lying areas; and consisted of more than 17,000 islands with a total area of 9.8 million sq. kilometres and a coastline exceeding 81,000 kilometres. The total population was more than 180 million, with approximately 110 million living in the coastal areas. Global climate change will affect not only the agricultural sector but also socio-economic indicators including health, and other economic sectors. In response, Indonesia has made efforts to address global climate change. In 1990 a National Committee was established which was known as the "National Committee on Climate and Environment". The Committee was under the coordination of the State Ministry for Environment and the members were from various institutions (Government private, and non-governments organisations). In 1992, Indonesia signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This was ratified by Indonesian Law No. 6 in August 1, 1994.

In technical areas, Indonesia has established some studies relating to global climate change which were funded not only by the National budget but also through international support (bilateral and multilateral). The on-going projects which have been implemented were: Feasibility Study for Sustainable Reforestation of Degraded Grassland in Indonesia (supported by the Kingdom of Norway) and Indonesia Country Study (US-Government). Projects in the future include an "ALGAS" project funded by ADB.

[Kazakhstan]
The main conclusions of the work thus far undertaken to inventory CHG sources and sinks indicated that the contribution of separate sources of GHG were identified. More than 90% of all CHG emissions by mass were CO2. More than 11 tons of CO2 are emitted on a per capita basis every year (nearly 200 million ton/yr.). CO2 absorption from the atmosphere by forests of Kazakhstan was estimated to he less than 2.5% of total emissions. The most accurate data are those for heat power stations which account for 49.5% of the total emissions of CO2, 39% of the total emissions of NO2 and 19% of the total emissions of CO. The data was obtained by analysing CO and NO2 contained in waste gases, and the CO2 estimates were obtained by balance calculations. The probable error does not exceed 5%. The assessment of possible decreases of CO2 emissions in the energy sector by the reconstruction and modernisation of old heat power stations (HPS) and putting into operation steam-gas cycles as well as replacing HPS by renewable resources was carried out. Based on available data the rise of mean annual temperature for the period 1891-1990 of 1oC is approximately twice the mean global increase. According to the GCM scenarios (CFDL, CCCM, GFDL-T) the mean annual temperature would increase by 5-6.9oC by the time a doubling of CO2 is observed. By 2010 there is expected to be an increase of 2-3oC (CDFM scenario). Corresponding changes in precipitation are less significant. Preliminary vulnerability assessments based on the DSSAT model for double CO2 concentrations show that the spring and winter wheat yields would decrease by 12% in Northern Kazakbstan.

[Malaysia]
Malaysia has been actively involved in climate change activities, and signed and ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change on 9 June 1993 and 17 July 1994 respectively. Malaysia is fully committed to fulfilling its obligations under the FCCC. With rapid growth and development environmental concerns are becoming more prominent and the government has adopted a "no regrets policy" in carrying out its development projects. Participation in various regional projects on climate change has not only increased the national capacity to undertake such projects in future but also heightened awareness of policy makers on impacts of climate change. Methodologies need to he standardised for results to be comparable and applicable to other regions. Malaysia has undertaken to monitor important GHGs such as CO2, CH4, ozone and also rain acidity to enhance the data base in the tropics.

A National Climate Committee was recently established to assist the Government in addressing climate change matters, particularly those obligations contained in the FCCC. A project proposal would be submitted soon for UNDP/GEF funding to develop the national capacity to prepare and report on the sources and sinks of GHGs, in fulfilment of its obligations of Articles 4 and 12 of the FCCC.

[Mongolia]
Mongolia was the 35th country to ratify the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. At the end of 1993, Mongolia joined the US Country Study Program and began compiling the National GHG Inventory. The Mongolian National GHG Inventory comprises emissions of gases such as CO2, CH4, NOx, CO from following main sectors: Energy, Industry, Agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry, and Waste. Estimated total emissions for 1990 from the above-mentioned sectors were 19,2524 Gg CO2, 330.1 Gg CH4, 0.9 Gg NOx and 83.3 Gg CO. Emissions from the fuel combustion for power generation sector, and the conversion of grasslands to arable land are the largest sources of carbon dioxide. Significant amounts of methane were emitted by livestock. But, in comparison with the developed countries. Mongolia's contribution to world GHC emissions is very small.

[Myanmar]
The National Commission for Environmental Affairs (NCEA) is directing the work for conservation and protection of environment. Myanmar has signed and ratified both the Biodiversity Convention and the Framework Convention on Climate Change. A national policy adoption of these Conventions has been proclaimed. GHG emissions for 1987 to 1991 were estimated in accordance with OECD methodologies, and those for the year 1990 were also estimated in accordance with IPCC guidelines. Myanmar is preparing and participating in Myanmar Agenda 21, ALGAS Project and National Greening Project. Public education on fuelwood substitution is being carried out. Monitoring and modelling climate change are being undertaken. There are plans to hold the Asia-Pacific Meeting on the Follow-up to the International Convention to Combat Desertification from 10 to 13 April 1995.

[Nepal]
The Hydrology and Meteorology Department is pursuing programmes on climate issues. These are constrained by the lack of adequate resources. However, a number of ongoing programmes on environmental monitoring may produce a considerable database and based on information for further studies on climate change.

[Papua New Guinea]
The delegate from Papua New Guinea noted that the fact that the Pacific island countries have been invited to participate in this seminar for the first time is significant as the small island states of the Pacific stand to lose so much more (their very existence) than others in this region. Papua New Guinea was the 16th country to ratify the UNFCCC, having signed on 13 June 1992. PNG is committed to the implementation of the UNFCCC and is planning to complete its inventory of GHG's and sinks in the time frame stipulated in the convention (3 years after entry into force). PNC is actively participating in SEAFRAME - a South Pacific sea-level and climate monitoring project. PNC has recently adopted the national forestry and convention plan, which requires the government and traditional landowners to co-operate in the management and conservation of forests. This is a reversal of previous wanton exploitation practices. PNG strongly urges the member countries of the Asia-Pacific region to lend their support to the AOSIS countries in their effort to see the adoption of the AOSIS protocol at the COP-1 in Berlin, Germany at the end of this month.

[Philippines]
The Philippines has created the Inter-agency Committee on Climate Change which is responsible for formulating policies and response strategies, and establishing working groups td assess and monitor climate change. Current researches and experiences include: modelling of impacts of climate change on rice plants; and the effects of UV-B radiation and methane emission from rice paddies. Another study dealt with the comprehensive assessment of the acceptability of least-cost options to mitigate CO2 emissions particularly in the following sectors: industry, power plants, business and households. Furthermore, a comprehensive country study will address all the major elements being considered under the emerging Philippine National Action Plan for Global Climate Change. One of the study elements was the development of a national inventory of GHG emissions and sinks. PAGASA has already initiated an emission inventory in 1992 and the draft inventory was published in September 1993. Therefore, this proposed study will not only update the existing inventory but further develop it into a more comprehensive one using the methodology stated in the OECD Experts Meeting entitled "Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Sinks" The overall final Integrated report is scheduled to he published in September 1994.

[Republic of Korea]
Rapid economic growth and the expansion of energy-intensive heavy chemical industries have caused a rapid increase in energy consumption. The projected long-term primary energy demand without adequate measures in Korea is 177 million ton of oil equivalent (TOE) in 2000 and 253 million TOE in 2010. These are approximately two and three times the levels of energy used in 1990 (93 million TOE), respectively. The results of recent research on the national inventory of CO2 in 1990 are as follows: energy related parts - 65 million tons; industrial process - 4 million tons; sinks - 10 million tons; net emissions 59 million tons making a total of 69 million tons. If energy policy and consumption patterns are not changed, the emissions level of CO2 will increase to 141 million tons in 2000, and 198 million tons in 2010. To cope with this trend, Korea's efforts are focused on maximising energy efficiency in every sector. Beside this, Korea has been preparing national inventories of emissions and sinks of CHGs and will submit this inventory before March 1997.

[Sri Lanka]
The country has a strong base in agriculture but is becoming increasingly industrialised resulting in increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Sri Lanka prepared its first GHG inventory in 1991 on a programme initiated by SMRC and the results of the study were published in 1993. In the preparation of the inventory there were several problems because of insufficient country- specific data and uncertainties in the application of certain emission coefficients which are sometimes site-specific. The need for measurement of emissions under local conditions were highlighted. Sri Lanka signed the framework convention on climate change in 1992 and ratified it in 1993. Some of the other work which had already been carried out in connection with the climate change activities include the ADB study to assess the vulnerability to climate change and an impact study based on scenarios developed by CSIRO of Australia At present work was being carried out on (a) Emissions inventory update, (b) Mitigation options; (c) Vulnerability assessment and (d) Awareness. The inventory update date studies relate to energy, industry, transport agriculture, forestry, land use and waste disposal. An inventory based on top down procedures for energy, industry and transport sectors were being completed. Several other programmes relevant to climate change ongoing at the moment were the Clean Air 2000 programme through UNIDO; Ambient air quality monitoring programme and sanitary landfill project funded by the World Bank; implementation of the forestry masterplan; and the ODS phasing-out programme supported the Montreal Protocol funds. In addition to the above, several working groups work on and monitor activities of relevant issues to address climate change. These are the Climate Change Co-ordinating Group (CCCG) at the Ministerial level; the team of Country Studies Programme on Climate Change (CSPCC); the Working Group on National Environmental Action Plan (NAEP); and a Monitoring Committee at implementation level. Further follow up activities based on the studies are being planned.

[Thailand]
In 1991, Thailand commenced a project entitled "Preparation of a National Strategy on Global Climate Change". The project, which was sponsored by the ADB, focused on the preparation of a National GHG emissions inventory to identify the major emission sources, and on the development of pragmatic, "no-regret" policies intended to mitigate GHG emissions in a manner economically and socially compatible with local needs. At present, Thailand was conducting a study entitled "Thailand's Country Study on Climate Change", sponsored by the US Country Studies Programme Support to address Climate Change, and in the process of formulating a national work plan for the Asian Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy Project (ALGAS). The ALGAS project was executed by ADB and sponsored by UNDP under the GEF. Thailand was planning to hold a series of seminars and workshops immediately after the Berlin Conference, so that all critical issues related to climate change can he conveyed to those implementing agencies concerned. Some institutional arrangements have been put in place to help Thailand meet its obligations under the convention. Notably, a National Committee on Climate Change has been created to co-ordinate the country climate change research and policy strategies.

[Viet Nam]
In recent years, a great number of issues on climate change have been discussed and considered, and the following responses selected for implementation: improvement of the scientific baseline to detect climate change; arraying out different studies on climate change; preparation of greenhouse gas inventories; participating in training programme to promote the implementation, the UNFCCC; participating in the Asian Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Study. To date, a National Programme has been drafted and a national implementation committee has been established to carry out all tasks related to the implementation of UNFCCC and Projects concerned, especially those of greenhouse gas emissions.

4.REGIONAL CO-OPERATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

(Item 6 of the agenda)

A.Overview presentation by ESCAP

The secretariat presented an overview on regional stream of activities on climate change. The secretariat recalled the progress of international developments related to global climate change and particularly the considerable number of Asian and Pacific countries which have ratified UNFCCC. The assistance needed in response to countries' requests include technical and financial support for preparation of national response strategies, provision of information, training, assistance for research, education, public awareness. The secretariat noted the co-operation programmes carried out at global level by the interim secretariat of UNFCCC, UNEP, UNITAR and UNDP in the field of capacity-building and information exchange. A number of significant events had taken place at regional level, starting from the 1990 Ministerial-level Conference on Environment and Development in Asia and the Pacific, which mainly focused on physical implications of climate change. The Ministerial level Conference to be organised in November 1995 would discuss the socio-economic implications of climate change. The secretariat also recalled a number of regional activities implemented by Asian Development Bank. UNEP, UNDP and IGBP, which produced considerable information in terms of country studies. Regional Seminars had been useful to establish linkages between global and regional initiatives. More forums for specific tasks, such as raising awareness, networking and developing regional strategies were needed in the region. The secretariat outlined the complex context and scope for regional co-operation initiatives and the need for supporting collaborative efforts and synergies among the various actors. The secretariat presented its ongoing project on regional co-operation on global climate change. ESCAP had invited the member Governments to designate national agencies to act as focal points of a proposed Regional Network on Climate Change. The secretariat reported to the Seminar on the status of development of the Network and invited the Seminar to identify additional requirements to strengthen regional co-operation in technical fields related to global climate change These particularly referred to the scientific assessment of climate change, through collaborative efforts and programs. The secretariat also invited the Seminar to consider the identification of priorities and possible means to develop regional networking initiatives to serve the purpose of capacity-building and information exchange and based on regional perspectives in co-ordination with global assessment and response actions. The secretariat also reported on the activities in the field of energy related to climate change under the Programme for Co-ordination on Energy and the Environment (PACE-E) supported by UNDP.

B.Presentation by other organisations

[UNEP]
Mr Mitsuo Usuki, Regional Representative of UNEP, presented the activities of the United Nations Environment Programme. UNEP have supported the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Studies in nine countries on field tests of methodologies with Global Environment Fund (CEF) support. This work is expected to he complete this year. UNEP also supported a series of regional workshops in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, on orientation of methodologies and inventory method. The Asia-Pacific regional workshop jointly sponsored by UNEP, the US County Studies Program and the Federal Government of Australia was held in Chiang Mai, Thailand in October 1994. 19 countries of the Asia-Pacific region participated, with regional NGOs and several international agencies. Giving further details on UNEP's activities, Mr. Usuki mentioned the Atmosphere Unit of UNEP has developed a project supported by the GEF on "Economics of GHG Limitations" with Phase I in India and Thailand; and "Country Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessments". Whose with Phase I involving Pakistan?

[Asian Development Bank]
Dr. Prodipto Ghosh, Environmental Specialist, Environment Division, Office of the Environment and Social Development, introduced ADB activities on climate change and other global environmental issues. Dr. Ghosh informed the meeting of the Bank's Initiative's on technical assistance projects on: (i) environmental considerations in energy development; (ii) global environmental issues; (iii) national response strategies for global climate change; (iv) acid rain emissions reduction; and (v) least-cost greenhouse gases abatement strategy for Asia Dr. Ghosh focused on the highlights and possible impacts of completed studies on global environmental issues and national response strategies for climate change. The regional study on global environmental issues covered: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. A national response strategy for global climate change was carried out in China and Thailand. In addition, the Bank has organised or sponsored several international seminars and workshops on Climate Change.

[OECD]
Ms Fiona Mullins of the Environment Directorate, OECD, presented recent work by the OECD on climate change. Recent activities aimed at helping the IPCC develop inventory guidelines; and working with Annex I countries to help develop guidelines to facilitate the completeness, transparency and comparability of their first National Communications. The OECD is currently doing analysis to support the development of Annex I countries' climate change strategies. An important conclusion of the first review of National Communications was that nine policies and measures are likely to be required to meet the objectives of the Convention. In addition, strengthening of commitments is one of the key issues on the agenda for the First Conference of the Parties in Berlin Protocols to the FCCC could he the mechanism for Parties to agree to further commitments. Discussions of what form a protocol might take have included the possibility of new, more concrete targets and timetables for reducing emissions and the possibility that specific policies and measures that Parties agree to take could be included in a protocol. In this context the issue of what further actions could be taken by Annex I countries is a priority. Annex I countries have asked the OECD and IEA secretariats to carry out analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation options for future climate change strategies. The first stage of this study is review of available information to identify and analyse promising policies and measures. This review is being undertaken with funding from the Government of Japan. The OECD secretariat will work very closely with Annex I countries to develop the analysis of the options. A report on the analysis will be prepared for a workshop which will be held in September 1995. The study will give particular emphasis to the potential advantages to be gained through co-operative actions. It is clear that once countries move beyond "no regrets" measures, difficult issues arise. Domestic concerns such as budget deficits, unemployment and competitiveness tend to drive policy decisions. Tough greenhouse gas measures in one country that encourage energy intensive industry to move elsewhere will not reduce global emissions. Creative multilateral solutions are a logical way ahead. The OECD hopes to support the development of such solutions through its analysis.

[SACEP]
The Director of SACEP Mr. Hossain Shihab, informed the meeting that experts consider two of the nine SACEP member countries. Bangladesh and Maldives, to be extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. It is predicted that one third of the Bangladesh and 1200 islands of the Maldives will be destroyed by intensive flooding with a rise in sea-level. Environmental matters of the South-Asian countries are handled by SAARC Technical Committee on Environment. In the last meeting of the SAARC Technical Committee in January 1995, SACEP were requested to act on some of the environmental issues. In light of the recommendation of the SAARC technical committee, SACEP is now consulting with the Government of Maldives to assist in climate change issues. SACEP is also drawing up projects for Afghanistan for the approval of the government.

[SPREP]
In introducing the activities of SPREP, Mr. Neville Koop, Climatology Officer stated the great concern of Pacific Islands nations since global warming is likely to result in sea-level rise, changing rainfall patterns, increased incidence of extreme events such as tropical cyclones, extinction of species unable to adapt to changes and disruption of ecosystems. To address this concerns SPREP has developed and implemented a climate change work programme with the following objectives: (i) to act as a clearing house for information on climate change; (ii) to improve understanding at political and public levels of potential impacts of climate change on the Pacific Islands region; (iii) to encourage and co-ordinate activities relating to the science of climate change and the determination of measures to avoid or mitigate the impact of these changes, (iv) to encourage and co-ordinate the development and implementation of response options to minimise the region's contribution to causes of human-induced climate change, (v) to encourage and co- ordinate the development and representation of the interests and concerns of the South Pacific region in international discussions on climate change, and response options for limiting its causes and adapting to it; (vi) to co-ordinate the assistance of international organisations, governments and institutions from within and outside the region in dealing with climate change in the South Pacific, (vii) to act as a clearing house for the region for information on the implications of international measures to protect the ozone layer, including information on the development and transfer of ozone-benign technologies.

In order to implement this programme throughout the SPREP member countries and territories SPREP co-ordinates a sea-level and climate monitoring programme to detect the signs of sea-level rise and atmospheric warming; conducts feasibility studies to determine the impacts of sea-level rise in nine Pacific island countries; facilitates and provides technical support to Pacific island delegates at international conferences and meetings; provides support for development of national policy for development and planning through a series of country workshops on climate change for senior leaders and decision makers; and strengthens the capacity of meteorological services through the provision of training, infrastructure and advice, and formulation of regional co-operation programme.

C.GHG emissions and sinks inventories in Asia and the Pacific

Dr. Vute Wangwacharakul on behalf of the Thailand Environment Institute presented a review study on the status of preparation of GHGs inventories in the countries of the Asia Pacific region. The study was based on a review of available published literature on the topic. Many of the countries in the Asia Pacific region have undertaken efforts at estimating all or part of their CHC emissions. These efforts generally comply with IPCC guidelines and cover most or all of the important GHGs. Others have undertaken partial inventories. Irrespective of the depth and coverage of individual efforts, the willingness to establish inventories on emissions and sinks is encouraging, since this indicates a broad agreement among the nations of the region that climate change is no longer a matter of mere academic concern. It also recognises that rapid industrialisation will have to take environmental externalities into consideration for maximisation of benefits from expected economic growth.

Most of the recent inventory estimates have come about as the result of regional efforts. The report summarises the GHG Inventories in the Asia Pacific region for the following countries: Australia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia. Japan. Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Viet Nam. In discussion of the problems which these countries have faced due consideration is given to:

The applicability of methodologies from country to country;
The availability of information: many developing countries have limited base-line data on which they can base their emissions estimates. Default values have generally been calculated in more advanced countries, possibly in different ecological zones. Predictive models require a minimum amount of data which may or may not be available in developing countries.
The relationship between inventory and forecasting: there is limited attention given to forecasting. While inventories can give an idea of the magnitude of the problem now, due attention must he given to the future under different scenarios if effective long-term planning is to he undertaken and implemented. This is particularly important in this region, given the large number of rapidly developing countries.
Recommendations for future research in the region include: Identification of data gaps, and research to fill these gaps; Primary research to determine the applicability of default values in different countries and in different environments; Development of forecasts for the future under different scenarios. The major recommendations of the report are: that country-specific values for different parameters be developed; that efforts are undertaken to make IPCC/OECD approach more applicable to all countries; that further investigation of forecast models such as COPATH and G2S2 be undertaken; and that the capacity to undertake climate change research and plan and implement response strategies be developed in the countries of the region.

5.ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSION

(Item 6 (d) of the agenda)

Summary of discussions

The Seminar noted the need to further assist small island states of the Asian and Pacific region in capacity-building efforts in the field of climate change. These requirements had been emphasised in the Barbados Declaration adopted by the Global Conference of Small Island Developing States, held in Barbados in April 1994 and the Manila Declaration adopted by the Second East Asia and Pacific Parliamentarians' Conference on Environment (EAPPCED 2), held in Manila in February 1995.

The Seminar noted that a considerable number of initiatives were supported by technical assistance programs in the field of capacity-building on climate change issues. The representative of the United States Country Studies Programme apprised the Seminar about forthcoming many conferences and workshops scheduled by the United States Country Studies Programme for the region. He invited all ESCAP countries to participate in these events if they wish.

The Seminar considered that synergies should be promoted in the region among various bilateral and multilateral technical assistance programs taking place at national level. The sharing of information on national activities and country studies should he supported by sustained efforts. The Seminar recognised that regional initiatives may effectively address such requirements by disseminating information in the region, among the countries and international organisations.

The Seminar considered that institutional mechanisms should he identified and supported to promote exchange of information in a continuous and effective manner. Initiatives such as the series of Asia Pacific Seminar on Climate Change, the Asia Pacific Network on Global Change Research supported by the Government of Japan and the ESCAP Regional Network on Climate Change would provide suitable mechanisms for this purpose. The representative of SPREP called the attention of the Seminar on the Sustainable Development Network, of which SPREP was a nodal point.

In particular, the Seminar noted that regional networking among national focal points would assist in disseminating information in the region and, at the same time, would support the development of necessary national co-ordination framework with the assistance from regional and international agencies. It was also considered that existing institutional mechanisms could be more effective in assisting the region in monitoring and evaluating the various activities and programmes.

The Seminar noted that there is a need to foster the involvement of scientists from the region in scientific assessment activities on climate change and particularly on research programs on climate change modelling. The Seminar noted that the publication of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC was expected in December 1995. Therefore the next Asia Pacific Seminar on Climate Change could provide a forum for the dissemination of the latest IPCC outputs in the region.

The Seminar recognised that the region needed greater efforts to promote public education and awareness on climate change issues. Suitable communication activities should be identified to involve the public at large. Suitable educational and information material should be produced and disseminated in the region.

The representative from the Interim Secretariat of UNECCC informed the Seminar about awareness raising material produced by the Interim Secretariat, copies of which were made available to the delegates. He also called the attention of the Seminar on the information package CC:INFO on climate change activities, copies of which were available from the Interim Secretariat.

Involvement of the community at large and in particular of local governments and nongovernmental organisations would be crucial to implement UNFCCC and to translate into action the agreed upon principles. The Seminar was informed that the Saitama Prefecture, Japan and the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), in collaboration with the Environment Agency of Japan, will he hosting the Third Local Government Leaders' Summit on Climate Change at Omiya, Japan in October 1995.

Consistent with recent findings of IPCC, the Seminar noted the need to strengthen commitment to GHG reductions beyond those contained in the UNFCCC and urged all parties to consider strategies for further reducing GHG emissions beyond present levels.

The Seminar recalled that UNFCCC contains commitments by Annex II Parties regarding financial and technological support to developing countries, including through the Financial Mechanism, and stressed the importance of implementing the commitments.

The Seminar considered that the particular concerns of the Asia-Pacific region, reviewed and discussed at the Seminar, should be brought to the attention of the forthcoming First Conference of the Parties to UNFCCC.

6.SPECIAL SESSION ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

(Item 7 of the agenda)

Prof. Nobuo Mimura of Ibaraki University of Japan in a special session presented a paper on Impacts of Global Warming on the Coastal Zone. The paper highlighted the findings of 1990 IPCC first assessment report and scientific prediction to be made in the 1995 second assessment report and noted the complexities involved in determining vulnerability induced by ENSO. The scenarios of the scientific findings on global warming and it's impacts on coastal system was the main feature of the presentation. Specific case studies on vulnerability indicating the scenarios and indices was presented. The paper also mentioned the latest results for projections of sea-level rise in different parts of the globe and its general, environmental and socio-economic impacts. Finally, the paper presented the concepts for timely response strategies to recognise the susceptibility, to reduce the vulnerability, and enhance the resilience of the coastal systems to climate change and sea level rise, The emphasis was put on the consideration for the integrated coastal zone management as a precautionary action. The presentation indicated the special characteristics in terms of time scale of global environmental issues in the highlight of the comparison with the Kobe earthquake. The presentation was concluded by suggesting to use the wisely to mitigate and to prepare for the future climate change. Discussions took place on the ability of GCM to predict the ENSO and El Nino, models to evaluate the additional erosion of sandy beaches, prediction of possible impacts on specific countries such as Bangladesh.

7.CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

(Item 8 of the agenda)

Participants of this Seminar appreciate the gravity of the consequences of climate change, its causes and the need to take affirmative action with the setting of workable mechanisms for co-operation for which the following recommendations are formulated:

Consistent with the Declarations of Barbados and Manila, regional institutions such as ESCAP and regional development agencies such as ADB have a critical role to play in assisting Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to implement their commitments under UNFCCC. To this end, such institutions should, inter alia:
1. establish and develop special programs to enhance endogenous capacity-building of SIDS in the area of climate change;
2. support, through appropriate technical and financial assistance, country driven projects, programmes and initiatives to assist SIDS to assess their vulnerability to climate change and identify strategies to alleviate the adverse impacts of climate change;
3. having recognised the vulnerability of SIDS to the impacts of climate change, implement specific activities to mitigate and adapt to adverse impacts of climate change , as required by Chapter I of the Barbados Programme of Action.
Expedite information exchange, redirect energies and resources to promote regional co- operation for more effective capacity-building for regional and national climate change related institutional strengthening.
The climate change scenario models should he adapted to regional scale. The capacities of experts from the countries of the Asian and Pacific region should be developed for adaptation and application of these models.
Research should be directed towards improvement of the models and methodologies for the evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts, with a view toward providing reliable and well informed decision making.
A regional system based on existing national monitoring systems for continuous monitoring and updating should be developed for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions with improved data and methods. Effort should he made for the findings to he publicised taking into account Article 6 of UNFCCC on Education Training and Public Awareness.
Greenhouse gas emission control measures where necessary and sink enhancement including monitoring should be applied under a consistent long range policy in the interest of developing strategies for infrastructural support for climate monitoring, as well as capacity for monitoring greenhouse gases, should be strengthened.
The most effective and least cost means of reducing emissions or enhancing sinks should he identified and pursued effectively by the national governments of the region in collaboration with ADB GEF and other multilateral agencies.
Research should be promoted in database development related to climate change in association with appropriate regional organisations.
Effective mechanisms should he established to ensure that all ESCAP member countries have access to cost-effective technologies/methodologies for minimising greenhouse gas emissions.

8.ADOPTION OF THE REPORT

(Item 9 of the agenda)

The Seminar unanimously adopted its report on 17 March 1995.