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Asia-Pacific Seminar Archives

2nd Asia Pacific Seminar on Climate Change 29-31 March 1993, Bangkok Thailand Report

CONTENTS MENU

  1. Organization of the Seminar
    1. Attendance
    2. Opening Statements
    3. Election of officers
    4. Adoption of the agenda
  2. Global Response to Climate Change
    :IPCC Findings and Activities of International Organizations
  3. Regional Implications of Climate Change
    Climate Change Scenarios, Assessment of Sea-Level Rise and Socio-Economic Impacts for The Asian and Pacific Region
    1. Regional Implications of Climate Change
      1. Climate Change Scenarios and Assessment of Sea Level Rise
        Climate Change and Socio-Economic Impacts for The Asian and Pacific Region
      2. ADB Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues Project
    2. Presentation of National Case Studies
      Bangladesh India Indonesia Malaysia Mongolia Pakistan
      Philippines Republic of Korea Sri Lanka Thailand Viet Nam  
  4. Feasible Financing Mechanisms and Innovative Economic Instruments to Counter Climate Change
  5. Regional Strategy on Climate Change
  6. Seminar Recommendations
  7. Adoption of The Report
  8. Annex
 

1.Organization of the Seminar

The Second Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change was jointly organized with the Asian Development Bank at Bangkok from 29 to 31 March 1993.

A.Attendance

The Seminar was attended by representatives of the following member countries of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.

The following United Nations bodies, specialized agency and intergovernmental organizations were represented: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), World Health Organization (WHO), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Commission of the European Communities (CEC), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CPCC).

The ADB Regional Study Team on Global Environmental Issues, consisting of country study coordinators, international consultants led by Climate Institute, United States of America, and members of the Interagency Coordination Committee, and some resource persons also participated in the Seminar.


B.Opening Statements

In welcoming the participants to the Seminar, the Executive Secretary singled out the issue of climate change among the global environmental threats, and drew the attention of the participants to the international efforts, including those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CPCC), on the scientific assessment of the causes and consequences, evaluation, and socio-economic impacts of climate change and sea level rise; and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at Rio, wherein emphasis was placed on international and regional cooperation and respective responsibilities. In the Asian and Pacific region, concern was voiced over the uncertainties surrounding the implications and impacts of global warming, particularly on the small island states that would be most vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. The Executive Secretary referred to the need for assessment and research studies on emissions in order to develop appropriate measures and actions to address them, for which human resources, institutional capacity building as well as regional and sub regional cooperation were prioritized. Several ongoing activities in the region including these joint efforts and the initiatives taken by the Government of Japan to establish an Asia-Pacific network for Global Climate Change Research would prepare the countries towards a clearer direction to address the issues.

In his statement to the Seminar, the Vice-President of the Asian Development Bank referred to the prevailing geographic and economic contrasts among the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The development of a regional strategy to cope with climate change would, therefore, have to depend on international cooperation, external financing and the choice of appropriate technologies. He was of the view that, in dealing with global climate change and its regional implications, the experience gained from national case studies should be used in drawing up national strategies.

In reviewing the environment-related activities of the Bank over the past decade, which accounted for 20 percent of total lending, the Vice-President pointed out the firm commitment of the Bank to the social and environmental sectors in the next few years to come. It was also noted that the Bank has been promoting close cooperation among countries and taking special initiatives to support regional efforts and national efforts of individual governments.

In conclusion, the Vice-President urged the countries in the region to work closer in addressing the complex and varied nature of climate change, in order to ensure a sustainable quality of life for the present generation without sacrificing that for future generations to come.


C.Election of officers

The Seminar elected Mr. Hussain Shihab (Maldives) as Chairperson, Mr. Wen Jian Ping (China) and Mr. Leoncio A. Amadore (Philippines) as Vice-Chairpersons, and Mr. Ryutaro Yatsu (Japan) as Rapporteur.


D.Adoption of the agenda

The meeting adopted the following agenda:

  1. Opening session.
  2. Election of officers.
  3. Adoption of the agenda.
  4. Global response to climate change:
    1. IPCC findings;
    2. Activities of international organizations.
  5. Regional implications of climate change:
    1. Climate change scenarios, assessment of sea-level rise and socioeconomic impacts for the Asian and Pacific region.
    2. ADB regional study on global environmental issues:
      1. Overview presentation;
      2. Presentation of national case studies.
  6. Feasible financing mechanisms and innovative economic instruments to counter climate change.
  7. Regional strategy on climate change.
  8. Seminar recommendations.
  9. Other matters.
  10. Adoption of seminar report and closure of the meeting.

2.Global Response to Climate Change:
IPCC Findings and Activities of International Organizations

(Item 4 of the agenda)

Introductory statements on the item

The secretariat while introducing this item mentioned that the Second Asia Pacific Seminar on Climate Change was being organized following several important initiatives such as the development of Agenda 21 by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the adoption of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the findings of IPCC's second scientific assessment on climate change. Despite efforts at improvement of methodologies, current predictions are still undermined by many uncertainties. It emphasized that a detailed assessment of global warming implications at the regional scale is still not fully developed. In any case, combating global warming requires a preventive and adaptive approach, which is aimed at reducing emissions, increasing sinks and preparing and implementing affective adaptation strategies. Implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change would go a long way in addressing some of these concerns. It hoped that the ADB study will contribute to improvement in our understanding of global warming implications and policy options for the countries of the region. ESCAP on its part is attempting to develop a regional network on research centers intended to strengthen the present capabilities for monitoring, interpretation, synthesis and understanding of modeling of climate scenarios in the region.

Mr. Bruce Callander of IPCC mentioned that while global warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has not yet been "proved", the conclusion by IPCC Working Group I (WGI) that the accumulation of greenhouse gases poses a threat to mankind was based on four chief lines of evidence: (a) the known radiative properties of the gases; (b) results from General Circulation Models (GCMS); (c) past variations in the Earth's climate; and (d) the observed 0.5°C warming over the past century. The 1992 Supplement reported new findings concerning stratospheric ozone depletion and sulfate aerosols, both of which cool the climate to a small extent but found no reason to alter the major 1990 conclusions. Regarding impacts, the 1992 Supplement added little to the 1990 assessment of the major areas likely be affected by climate change. However, the response strategy should, inter alia, focus on areas which are: (a) beneficial for reasons other than climate change ("no-regrets" policies); (b) economically efficient; (c) flexible; (d) compatible with economic growth; (e) administratively practical; (f) "fair". In preparing for a second full assessment report in 1995, the IPCC has merged its "old" Working Groups II an III into a new Working Group II (WGII) which will address the whole field of Impacts and Response Strategies. A new WGIII deals with cross-cutting economic and other issues. In addition to the 1995 second full assessment, IPCC has commissioned a preliminary 1994 report on radiative forcing on climate, including the global warming potential, an index of relative importance of different gases. Both WGI and WGII will address issues raised by Article 2 of the Climate Convention concerning eventual stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. WGI will continue development of IPCC Guidelines for the preparation of the national inventories of net greenhouse gas emissions (Articles 4 and 12 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change), with the first version due for completion at the end of 1993.

Dr. Nay Htun, Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations Environment Programme, in his keynote address, mentioned that there has been unprecedented growth all over the world in the last few decades. As a consequence, not only change, but also the rate of change has assumed importance in monitoring socio-economic development and attendant environmental effects. It is a well-known fact that there have been some changes in climate over the millennia. However, climate variability has also become significant. This change has become more pronounced in the present century and is likely to be further aggravated over the next century. In order to deal with this challenge, UNEP, in accordance with its catalytic role, has been involved in four areas, promotion of tools and techniques for assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change including incremental costs involved, support of scientific assessment of climate change, support for global observation systems and monitoring programs, and technical cooperation and assistance to the countries for assessing potential impacts and formulating appropriate strategies for combating climate change. The major issues of concern in climate change are agricultural production and food security, improvement of scientific databases, and provision of linkages between the three existing international conventions on ozone layer depletion, climate change and biological diversity and the two proposed instruments, one on desertification and drought and some kind of forest principles which may emerge in the future. In elaborating the linkages between environment and development, he emphasized the need for more country specific case studies, methodologies for assessing incremental costs, databases for national integrated economic and environmental accounting systems, harmonized energy development and environmental policies with particular emphasis on coal, the use of economic instruments to encourage and facilitate adaptation of green-house gas control strategies and promoting efficiency in resource use and education, training information and awareness. He hoped that all the above elements will be addressed while reviewing the national case studies and formulating regional strategies on climate change.

The Seminar recognized that the scientific assessment of IPCC based on general circulation models has been instrumental in raising awareness of the serious implications of climate change and has also stimulated a large number of scientific activities in this regard. However, there were not many studies at the regional and subregional levels to supplement the predicted climate change. It may be useful to promote regional, sub regional and national studies with a view to having a better appreciation, interpretation and understanding of the various models and their application in the region.

The Seminar noted that the assessments based on general circulation models (GCMs) had sound scientific basis but needed further refinement. They generally provided a benchmark for taking appropriate action in developing response and adaptive strategies on climate change. Some work has been done in limited area models in Europe and the United States. These models are critically dependent on general circulation models but have better resolution. Similar models need to be developed for the Asian and Pacific region. The meeting felt that the strengths and weaknesses of various models used for predicting climate change should also be discussed in detail together with efforts in improving these models.

The Seminar also felt that several studies have attempted to analyze causes and benefits associated with measures for combating global warming. However, similar studies generally have not been carried out on sea level rise. Consideration might be given to promote studies in this area. At the same time, in addition to climate change, climate variability should also be an important component of such studies. The increased frequency of storm surges and tropical cyclones should also be further highlighted within the realm of these predictions.

It was also stated that the major work on climate change was centered around reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It may be necessary to develop appropriate methodologies for reducing methane emissions and increasing sinks of greenhouse gases. The Seminar also encouraged countries to ratify the Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, in doing so, it recognized that the countries would require technical assistance in order to assess the implications and implementation of the provisions of the Framework Convention. It also suggested that measures to combat climate change should not be contingent only on the ratification of the framework convention, but action should be initiated in this area as early as possible so that adverse impacts could be contained. The Seminar, consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, noted that energy consumption in the developing countries will need to grow. Hence emissions of greenhouse gases may increase. Efforts are therefore necessary to promote energy efficiency and energy conservation.

The Seminar noted that the modem survey and topographic maps were available only with a maximum resolution of one meter contour. Further refinement would require surveys for most vulnerable areas, particularly for assessment of impacts of sea level rise which were predicted to be in the range of only a few centimeters. In this connection, a view was expressed that current methods of interpolation were 'fraught with major uncertainties. However, for storm surges, current maps with I , 2, and 5 m contours could be used.

The representative of UNDP indicated that as part of the world wide efforts to combat and reduce the effects of climate change, UNDP has initiated a regional programme on the Development of Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan in Asia, through the Global Environment Facility (GEF), with ADB as the executing agency. At the country level, the executive Committee of the Interim Multilateral Ozone Fund has recently approved the Institutional Strengthening project for Thailand, with a total amount of US$ 400,000 to be managed by UNDP Thailand. Furthermore, UNDP has also approved the financing of a Programme for Asian Cooperation on Energy and the Environment (PACE-E), from its regional IPF including one component on coal development and use, with a view to training technicians, managers and executives in the most advanced techniques of producing and using coal, while minimizing adverse impacts on the environment.

The representative of CEC stated that the Community policy in the area of climate change is presently directed towards the achievement of stabilization of CO 2 emissions at the community level by the year 2000 based on the year 1990. The European Council on Environment has recently agreed to lay down the necessary instruments for the ratification of the Rio Convention on Climate Change by 31 December 1993. The Community will seek to provide an initial tranche of 600 million ECUs (European Currency Units) in the first year for the purpose. Environment has been listed as a priority area for cooperation for the region. At least 10 percent of the resources of each development project must be allocated to environmental projects and Environmental Impact Assessments are required in every case. Additionally, 50 million ECU have been provided for tropical forests in 1993. CEC projects related to climate change cover a wide range of fields such as waste management or air pollution. The resources for cooperation on environment will be expanded in the future. The CEC will stand ready to cooperate with Asia and the Pacific countries both in international and bilateral fora.


3.Regional Implications of Climate Change:
Climate Change Scenarios, Assessment of Sea-Level Rise and Socio-Economic Impacts for The Asian and Pacific Region

(Item 5 of the agenda)

A.Regional Implications of Climate Change

Dr.Shuzo Nishioka, Director, Center for Global Environmental Research, at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Environment Agency of Japan, delivered a keynote address on the regional implications of climate change. Dr. Nishioka placed the relevance of climate change issues for the region within the context of the current international cooperative effort being undertaken after the adoption of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Increasing energy consumption sustained by human population growth and rapid economic development, specific geographical and climatic characteristics, vulnerable balances between supply and demand for natural resources, vulnerability of land-use patterns and widespread economic linkages among the countries are all factors to bc taken into account while assessing climate chance implications for the region. Therefore each country in the region should carry out thorough assessments of direct and indirect impacts caused by climate change; establish greenhouse gas emissions inventories according to standardized methodologies; strengthen local research capabilities; predict future levels of greenhouse gas emissions according to national socio-economic scenarios; and evaluate and select response strategies and technological measures which suit national priorities and local conditions. Dr. Nishioka pointed out that a future regional strategy dealing with climate change should be based on strong international cooperation. This might be achieved through existing international fora and organizations and also through the adoption of appropriate mechanisms of dialogue between the scientific community and the decision-makers, such as START (Systems for Analysis, Research and Training) and the Asia and Pacific Network on Global Change Research (APN/CGR), currently being structured. In particular Dr. Nishioka called for a more equitable sharing of research resources and methodologies between developing and developed countries.


1. - Climate change scenarios and assessment of sea level rise -
Climate change and socio-economic impacts for the Asian and Pacific region

Prof. Nobuo Mimura, Ibaraki University, Japan, summarized the current research topics in assessing vulnerability to sea level rise. The IPCC Working Group III, originally in charge of the development of response strategies, proposed in 1991 , through its Subgroup on Coastal Zone Management, a worldwide vulnerability assessment of sea level rise to be carried out through a number of case-studies. It also identified the general impacts associated with sea level rise, namely erosion, flooding, inundation, saltwater intrusion, alteration of tides and sedimentation patterns, and damage to coral reefs. A proper vulnerability assessment should be based on a quantitative evaluation of feasible impacts and should consider the propagation of secondary effects through physical systems, mainly caused by two factors; an increase in water depth and a rise of average sea-level. The Subgroup on Coastal Zone Management has developed a standard methodology for vulnerability assessment based on seven steps, which takes into account local factors and particular situations. Only a few Asian countries have been involved with such research activities so far. Professor Mimura further described the methodology by outlining a case-study carried out in China. In particular he pointed out that primary impacts on the coastline are caused both by progressive inundation and by coastal flooding associated with major meteorological events. Both factors determine the extension of the coastal area affected and must be duly considered when developing vulnerability indices. The application of such methodology is based on the availability of suitable data, locally gathered or produced with technologies such as remote sensing. Professor Mimura presented future plans concerning these research topics, such as the Second Assessment Report to be published by IPCC in 1995, and the development of an Asia-Pacific database for vulnerability assessment and coastal zone management. Data currently available is only preliminary and needs to be improved through further research activities. In that connection Prof. Mimura drew the attention of the delegates on the Eastern Hemisphere Workshop on the Vulnerability Assessment of Sea Level Rise and Coastal Zone Management, co-sponsored by Australia and Japan under the auspices of the IPCC, held in Tsukuba, Japan in August 1993.

Dr. Jeremy Warford, Department of Political Economy, University College, London stated that the uncertainties still surrounding the scientific assessment of climate change undermine the evaluation of socio-economic impacts. Such evaluation, as much as the socio-economic implications of these environmental impacts, is therefore highly debated. Nevertheless the complex problem of global warming gives plenty of scope for socio-economic research, focusing on two distinct but related aspects: the impacts of climatic change and those caused by preventive and adaptation measures undertaken by the governments. The most suitable technique for policy evaluation is Cost-Benefit Analysis, even though it has its shortcomings such as discounting and environmental cost/benefit valuation. The use of gross national product (GNP) as a macroeconomic parameter is also questionable: long term economic estimates, as required by the time span considered in climate change studies, are not reliable. Despite such methodological shortcomings, qualitative and, moreover, quantitative assessment of socio-economic implications of climate change are needed. The country studies which are being carried out under the ADB project are expected to mark significant progress in our understanding of this complex issue; their major outcomes will probably be the identification of areas deserving further research. Dr. Warford pointed out that the uncertainties and the long term perspective associated with the global climate issue does not justify large capital investments at the present time. Current priorities for no-regret and cost-effective policies could be identified in promoting further research; in building technical capabilities in the countries; and in developing early warning systems, all of which should consider both physical factors (the supply side) and socio-economic factors (the demand side). Cost-benefit analysis should also be adopted to promote no-regrets policies in key-sectors such as transport, energy, etc., against pressures exercised by particular interests. The promotion of innovation through the provision of effective incentives should represent a further asset for the governments.

Attention was drawn to methodological problems associated with both scientific and economic assessments. It was stressed that the adoption of cost-benefit analysis should take into account both efficiency and equity criteria. The Seminar expressed concern for proper evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and in particular for vulnerability assessment to sea level rise. UNEP has also promoted studies on climate change in Indonesia, the results of which should be discussed in subsequent workshops on the subject. The delegate from Philippines expressed the deep interest of developing countries in sharing the experiences and the methodologies developed so far for vulnerability assessments of sea level rise.


2. ADB Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues Project

The agenda item was introduced by the statements by Dr. Bindu N. Lohani, Assistant Chief, Office of the Environment. Asian Development Bank and by Mr. Ryutaro Yatsu, Deputy Director, Planning Division, Global Environment Department, Environment Agency of Japan. Dr. Lohani summarized the Asian Development Bank's strategy for the ' 90s, according to which about 50% of funded projects relate to environmental and social sectors. The environmental perspective and in particular the concern for climate change are endorsed by ADB through the consideration given to such issues in the Bank's policies for the energy sector and other sectors; specific assistance programs enabling the countries to strengthen their own capabilities for environmental management and assessment; and, the funding of projects directly relating to environmental issues, such as the one which is the object of the present Seminar. Dr. Lohani in particular mentioned major Bank projects in the energy sector carried out in China and the Bank's involvement in the planning activities for the Global Environment Facility. He also highlighted the objectives, the time-frame and the structure of the Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues, which has been provided with a budget of US$ 1.7 million, through technical assistance funded by the Governments of Japan, Norway, and Australia.

Mr. Yatsu presented the activities of the Environment Agency of Japan concerning climate change. The Environment Agency organized the First Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change held at Nagoya in 1991 and co-sponsored this Second Seminar. Mr. Yatsu mentioned that on March 12 the Cabinet requested the Diet to ratify the Framework Convention on Climate Change. This important step must be placed within the context of wide-ranging initiatives undertaken in Japan on this issue, which reached their apex with the adoption of the "Action Program to Arrest Global Warming", launched in 1990. The Environment Agency is carrying out a collaborative program which involves country-studies in Indonesia and the Pacific nations and is expected to develop further during the next fiscal year. The serious concern of the Government of Japan for environmental policies is witnessed by the recent submission to the Diet of the Basic Environmental Law, intended to give rise to introduce profound innovations into existing environmental legislation. The Government is also pursuing the establishment of a regional network of global change research. Further progress toward stronger regional cooperation is expected to be achieved at the Environment Congress for Asia and the Pacific (ECO ASIA) '93 conference, which will be convened by the Environment Agency at China, Japan in July 1993. Mr. Yatsu expressed the interest of Japan to be the host country of the Third Regional Seminar on Climate Change.

Giving further details concerning Action Program to Arrest Global Warming, Mr. Yatsu referred to the medium and long term objectives set by the Program: the document was available at the Seminar. ADB and ESCAP representatives underlined the reasons for promoting the development of a regional strategy as a complementary measure to national action plans; regional initiatives aim also to involve delegates from Asian and Pacific countries with the scientific work carried out in the centers of excellence outside the region. Dr. Pittock and Dr. Callander stated that impact assessments carried out on the basis of general circulation models were carrying confidence as far as such models were correctly endorsed. The Seminar recognized that the current shortcomings of general circulation models were a reason for further research activities at regional and sub-regional levels, toward the development of a reliable scientific base for decision makers.


2. a) ADB Regional Study: overview presentation.

  1. Progress report
  2. Impact studies and adaptation development
  3. General circulation models
  4. Emissions inventory and mitigation measures

Dr. Ata Qureshi , Director of Environmental Programs at the Climate Institute and team leader of the ADB Regional study, provided a review of the ADB regional project, the philosophy of which was to produce country studies developed according to a comparable methodology and at the same time fitting into local specific conditions. The Terms of Reference for country-studies were established at the Commencement Workshop held in Manila in July 1992. The implementation of the project is coordinated among the national agencies, the international consultants and research institutions by the Climate Institute. The emission level scenarios developed by IPCC for the years 2010 and 2070 are used for reference. Four climate change scenarios are being used together with three levels of sensitivity to reflect uncertainties. Emission inventories are being prepared according to the latest methodologies developed by IPCC and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Impact studies include the assessment of vulnerability to present-day climate variations. The agriculture sector and sea-level rise are receiving the greatest attention. The studies involve the economic assessment of sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the development of no-regret policies and further research initiatives. National response strategies will be developed according to the major impacts identified, the inventories of greenhouse gases, the economic assessment of feasible policy options and through the identification of special sectoral actions. Country studies are currently at variable stages of implementation. Their outcomes will be exposed in national workshops to be held in each country in May - July 1993; the final reports are due by August 1993 and may be presented at the Third Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change that Japan has offered to organize. The fundamental outputs expected from the regional study are a national strategy for each country and a broad regional strategy for Asia and the Pacific; furthermore the project may help the participant countries to gain multilateral and bilateral funding and will identify further investment opportunities for ADB and other financing institutions.

Mr. John C. Topping Jr., President, Climate Institute, reviewed current research topics relating to the impacts and feasible adaptation measures for climate change. Human health related problems may be aggravated, particularly in developing countries, due to increased occurrence of heat shock mortality, spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, and variability of acclimatization factors. Quantitative assessment of the impacts due to sea-level rise are currently being produced for population displacement, loss of agricultural land and production systems, and loss of water supply due to saltwater intrusion. Current adaptation options for such impacts involve anticipatory measures through Coastal Zone Management and reactive policies such as coastal protection. While general impacts have been identified, quantitative evaluation is still weak, due to uncertainties in scientific predictions. An emerging issue is represented by the fact that global warming might offset the benefits expected to be gained from water resources development. The complex set of factors affecting agriculture production under climate change scenarios is being examined. It is predicted that crop yield would increase in high latitude areas and decrease in low latitude areas. Global cereal production would decrease and in turn its price would increase. While trade liberalization might reduce the hunger risk in the medium term, low cost adaptation measures for the agricultural sector would not offset all adverse impacts in developing countries. Furthermore, government policies limiting fertilizer usage and land expansion may eventually raise cereal prices.

Dr. Pittock, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia, reviewed the underlying principles and the methodology adopted in the general circulation models. He pointed out that the 4 models currently adopted worldwide have a resolution ranging from 300 to 500 km, which makes them unsuitable for studies at the subregional level. These models still require further caveats, such as the failure to capture some climatic features, failure to predict phenomena like El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical cyclones and to model adequately soil and vegetation systems. Nevertheless GCMS are the best source of information now available and are undergoing rapid improvements. They must be used critically, giving full consideration to the uncertainties involved due to varying future greenhouse gas emission levels, global climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases, the effects due to natural variability, biospheric feedback, and so forth, as has been clearly argued in the assessment reports prepared by the IPCC. The confidence in the models is justified on the ground of the substantial agreement shown by all four GCMs. Modeling exercises have been scaled to the regional level. The maximum resolution achievable allows consideration of three different sub-regions in Asia and the Pacific: the South-West Monsoon region, the North-East Monsoon region and the South Asia subregion, each encompassing ten or more grid points.

Mr. Craig Ebert, ICF Inc., reviewed the objectives of emission inventories, namely the identification of size and importance of regional, national, and source categories to provide solid basis for policy making, as required also by the Framework Convention on Climate Change. He reviewed the progress of country-studies, mentioning that the Malaysia and Vietnam studies do not involve emissions inventories. Mr. Ebert identified potential areas for regional research in the agricultural and energy sectors and in land use patterns. In this connection the countries of the region should strengthen national capabilities, play a more active role in current IPCC emission inventory process and promote research at the regional level on common-issues. Mr. Ebert reported on the major activities relating to mitigation measures, such as greenhouse gas emission curbing and sink enhancement. Major options encompass energy switching (from coal and oil to natural gas and renewable sources), promotion of energy efficiency, control of land-use changes (reforestation, erosion protection) and sound management of agriculture practices. The status of implementation of mitigating policies in participating countries is still premature. Current policy assessment exercises give top priority to the energy sector and also encourage the adoption of no-regret measures based on a multisectoral approach. In this respect, country studies are limited by the lack of information relating to costs and performance of technology, and sometimes by the lack of internationally developed and accepted methodologies. Further progress will be achieved through the improvement of methodology, the evaluation of policy 6ptions according to criteria of cost-efficiency and cost-benefit analysis, and the promotion of suitable financing mechanisms.


Summary of discussions

The Seminar noted that, given the current uncertainties associated with GCMS and the resources required for their application, these models should be integrated with complimentary methodologies for climate predications, as in the long run they represent the best option. The Seminar also called for further follow-up activities after the conclusion of the ADB study, with particular regard to carbon sinks, and for the development of a worldwide database of global climate research similar to those developed for other environmental research fields. Such a global database should also be scaled and made available at regional and national levels. The Seminar also underlined the methodological problems incurred in estimating emissions caused by land-use changes and biomass burning. In this regard, the delegate from Japan pointed out that his country has developed and applied a methodology for carbon emission inventories which produced a figure of 318 million tons of carbon emitted during the fiscal year 1990; details may be made available to interested parties. The representative from hoped that his country, even though already involved with specific case-studies, would be involved in further regional research. The representative from the Philippines mentioned that the Environmental Management Bureau has been involved in country studies on global warming and particularly on an emission inventory for Metro Manila, whose findings should be compared and cross-validated with the results of the ADB funded project. Dr. Lohani called for a larger integration of results among complementary projects and mentioned that the precise aim of the actual project is to develop national strategies in the participating countries.


B.Presentation of national case studies

The major findings of the country studies were summarized by the coordinators of the national research teams. Details of current activities relating to climate change were also given by the delegates from China, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand.

[Bangladesh]

The emphasis of the study has been on two areas: water resources and agriculture. The simulation exercises by CSIRO coupled with actual observations in Bangladesh indicate that there has been little to no increase in the average annual temperature in Bangladesh. Rainfall patterns, however, showed definite increasing trends. Observed rates appear to broadly tally with computer simulations but appear to be at variance with longer term observations. Increased rainfall in the future is expected to lead to increased surface run-offs with severe flooding occurring in the country. Sea level rise will be less than expected so far. In this connection, however, about 8 percent of the country's area and 5 percent of the present population are under threat. Agriculture apparently will benefit from the climate change. In particular, it is expected that there may be an increase of up to 10 percent in the yield of rice. However, model simulations indicate that, due to the interplay of other factors like economic policies and prices, the realized yield increase will be only about 4 percent. Forestry will suffer to a greater extent due to the impact of sea level rise which is expected to inundate 75 percent of the Sunderbans. Major policy options must rely on the management of water resources and protection of coastal areas. Protection from flooding with coastal fortifications and adaptation strategies will continue to have high priority. Regional cooperation in water management and water-sharing must be given top priority, given the limited achievements reached so far. In the case of coastal zone management, types of adaptations measures that may be undertaken are provisions of cyclone shelters and coastal afforestation measures which are either under active consideration or implementation. Emission inventories have shown that the national contribution in 1990 amounted to 3.62 million tons of carbon (as CO 2 ) and 3.3-6.3 million tons of methane.


[India]

The national team has covered extensive work on greenhouse gas emission monitoring, with particular regard to the power generation sector (coal, oil, and natural gas). Data currently available needs to be refined further. Impacts due to sea level rise have been assessed through studies being carried out over two years by a number of research centers. These studies have relied on tide gauge data available for the last 50 - 60 years and have identified vulnerable areas and likely impacts. More detailed assessments were undermined by the lack of short-range contour maps of the critical areas. The Indian Agricultural Research Institute has carried out modeling of crop (wheat and mustard) yields in light of the changes in critical parameters such as temperature and rainfall. Forests are currently heavily exploited, but (thanks also to extensive afforestation programs) there are clear indications that their uptake of carbon dioxide balances the national emission level. Both past meteorological records and general circulation model predictions do not provide clear evidences of increasing probabilities for extreme meteorological events: further cooperative research is needed on this issue. Mitigation options under consideration include: development of alternative energy sources and energy conservation; efficiency improvement for power generation and conservation; and, greater use of natural gas. Technologies for CO 2 emission control are not available in the country: developed countries should provide detailed information on the technical and economic feasibility of current technologies. Appropriate technologies which suit the country's policies and needs should be transferred.


[Indonesia]

Impact assessment exercises have indicated the following as particularly vulnerable ecosystems: the wetlands, mangrove forests, coral reefs, and sand and mud flats, mainly in the eastern coasts of Riau and Jambi, in the coastal areas between Remband and Surabaya in the southwestern part of Sulawesi, and in the islands in the Flores Sea. Tourism and recreational resources are also extremely vulnerable, such as the area in and around Jakarta, the southeastern coast of Java, Bali, and in the major beaches in the eastern coast of Lampung and around Cilacap to Yogyakarta. Great vulnerability is associated with transportation networks (road and railway) in the northern part of Java and the southern part of Sumatra, coastal cities like Jakarta. Surabaya, agriculture and fish ponds in Java and Bali, coastal fishing populations along the coasts of Java and Bali, the southern part of Sulawesi, the northern and southern coast of Sumatra, and West and East Nusatenggara. Salt water intrusion is likely to affect Java and Bali. Coastal flooding and erosion could occur in Java and the northern part of Sumatra while erosion is expected to take place in all the plains of Java and in the southern part of Sulawesi. Such threats would aggravate the subsidence already taking place in the northern part of Java. With regard to human health, increases in the numbers of malaria and dengue fever cases and a decrease in the number of diarrhea cases are anticipated. Adaptation policy options in key sectors such as agriculture, water resources and coastal protection include increased taxes and stringent regulations for ground water consumption, alternative clean water technologies, spatial planning, information dissemination, flood control infrastructures, stringent building codes, maintenance and improvements of sea-level rise oriented infrastructure, incentives for adaptation decisions (e.g. community housing and alternative income, small scale industries, etc.) and further research. Adaptation options with regards to human health focus on malaria and dengue fever control. Policy options for the mitigation of climate change have been indicated for the energy sector (efficiency improvement in energy generation and fuel switching) and for industry (incentives for energy efficiency). In the transportation sector, mitigation measures consist of the development of better telecommunication systems, development of better city planning, development of efficient and inexpensive public transport, and planning for rapid transit systems. The identification of mitigation options in the agricultural sector is still ongoing. Future research should focus on energy efficiency, water resource conservation, and alternative supply technologies, potential funding mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, impact assessment and extensive national resources monitoring.


[Malaysia]

Three main interconnected impact areas have been identified; sea level rise, arable land and water resources. The direct impacts will consist of increased rainfall but decreased water supply. Water deficit during periods of drought is estimated to be 30-35 percent of total demand. A 9 percent increase of flood peaks is estimated: some 27,000 km 2 of the country is flood-prone and some 3 million people will be affected. A 30 cm sea rise will affect 246 km of the coastline. A 100 cm sea level rise will affect all 1,400 km of the coastline. Sea level rise will lead to salinization and inundation of present agricultural land, Increased temperature and changes in rainfall will also have a net negative effect on crop production. Policy options rely on government/private sector partnerships, multilateral cooperation, economic growth, and sustainable development. These objectives may be achieved through establishing round table dialogue between government and industries, the opening to multilateral cooperation, the raising and sound management of funding, developing environmental monitoring, building up human capital, developing an international network for information exchange, and establishing mutual tariff structures multilaterally. Further options to be evaluated and implemented are further monitoring global changes, the promotion of innovative technologies, and better management of water supply. A second green revolution is necessary, based on crop genetic improvement, extension of agricultural extension services, innovation in production technology and sound land-use management. Sea walls have to be built where and when necessary, but this should not be a near future option. Natural gas still represents a potential energy resource. Town planning will, in the future, incorporate potential village resettlement as the coastline recedes.


[Mongolia]

Although Mongolia produces relatively little amounts of greenhouse gases, it is being affected by climate change. The mean annual temperature increase has recently risen from 0.5 to 0.7oC per year, causing regular droughts. These environmental/changes have negative implications for the national economy, mainly due to negative effects on animal husbandry, farming and industrial production. The lack of standardized methodologies and financial resources are constraining current efforts to develop emission inventories for greenhouse gases. Mongolia is interested in developing all possible coordination with Asian countries and regional international organizations in the field of climate change. The country hopes to be involved with future joint research projects on this complex issue, as it will be affected to an even greater extent by drought and desertification induced by global warming.


[Pakistan]

The formation of the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change and the National Workshop on Climate Change held in December 1992 are major institutional changes resulting from the project. The emissions inventory completed according to IPCC methodology covers carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels amount to 65 Tg (or 18 Tg CO 2 -C); per capita values are one seventeenth of the world average value and one eighth of the Asian value, owing to a favorable energy mix including a low share of coal use (4%) and a high share of hydropower (18%). methane emissions (42% of world per capita values) are more worthy of mitigation measures. Pakistan is exceedingly vulnerable to climate change because it has the largest continuous irrigation system in the world for arid and semi-arid land; this land is very prone to water logging and salinity intrusion. Its fragile watersheds will become more vulnerable, owing to increased rainfall, which will cause higher erosion levels in the western Himalayas. According to the predictions provided by general circulation, the country expects 17 - 59% more rain in summer monsoons, perhaps largely concentrated in more intense rainfall events, as a major effect of climate change. The study has concentrated on the impacts of heat stress on agriculture (10 - 60% wheat yield losses), increased variation in water resources (foregone benefits of irrigation investments) and accelerated sea level rise in coastal zones (prolonged floods in Karachi with torrential rains and saline intrusion into mangrove and fresh waters). Preliminary assessments of the impacts on forestry and human health have been produced. The study also attempted to cost, somewhat crudely, these impacts in relation to present gross national product. The team is presently evaluating mitigation options, especially those aimed at curbing carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The existing long term energy strategy adopted in 1985 aimed to reduce energy demand growth by 20% from business-as-usual scenarios. Further programs will promote energy efficiency and renewable resources.


[Philippines]

The most serious environmental hazards arising from climate change have been identified as severe weather events such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, and sea level rise. The impacts of sea level rise by 2070 include the potential submergerice of small islands, some reclaimed areas in Metro Manila and Metro Cebu, some districts in Manila and the Manila Bay shoreline area, and the Laguna de Bay lakeshore areas which include agricultural and aquacultural land settlements. The agricultural impacts can be expected to be more serious in areas vulnerable to typhoons and floods, areas frequently visited by droughts and those near coastal areas most vulnerable to storm surge and salt intrusion. The net effects on crop yields of increased CO 2 and temperature have been found to be limited. Higher rainfall scenarios for 2010 and 2070 may affect wetland crops due to floods and typhoons. Hazards would seriously affect more than 5 million people on the basis of 1992 population data. If mitigation/adaptation measures are enacted, the quantity of people at risk will be reduced to about 3.3 million. The initial adaptation options recommended for agriculture include retreat and accommodation to sea level rise and intensive research toward the development of cultivars resistant to climate change. The recommendations relating to water resource adaptation are to strengthen the present master plan on soil and water conservation to cope with the expected changes. Protection of farmlands from frequent seasonal flooding during the rainy season and intensive soil and water conservation during the dry season is also recommended. Coastal Protection Adaptations, retreat, accommodation and finally protection, should be assessed further to come up with the most economical responses.

The forestry adaptation strategy calls for a retreat adaptation option due to sea level rise for forested areas. A forest fire protection scheme is recommended during the dry season and during ENSO related drought. The most pressing concern is the mitigation of air pollution from motor vehicles in Metro Manila and the intermittent electrical power shortages occurring during the dry season. The cost-benefit analysis of mitigation and adaptation options are yet to be established. The strengthening of the present disaster preparedness and its response mechanisms is recommended. Regional cooperation in terms of data base, manpower development and research including technology transfer is highly recommended.


[Republic of Korea]

According to the most recent data, mean annual temperature shows a significant increase over time. The current greenhouse gas monitoring system only observes carbon dioxide concentrations but will observe chloro-fluorocarbons and nitrous oxide as soon as possible. The monitoring effort undertaken by national administrative and research centres also involves participation in international programs such as the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. The Government established the Ministerial Committee on Global Environmental Problems in July 1992 under the chairmanship of the prime minister and set up a Vice-Ministerial Committee and a Planning Board as a part of its infrastructure. 'Since that time, all projects to be implemented by the various authorities, which would all likely be affected by global environmental problems, have been reviewed by this Committee. Preliminary assessments of regional impacts of climate change involve the development of greenhouse gas sectoral emission scenarios in the long term, the evaluation of climate change impacts on ecosystems and various industrial sectors, and the initiation of techniques and policy options for reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases on a sectoral basis. The main objective of current policies is to establish a long-term national strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.


[Sri Lanka]

Preliminary findings show that present day vulnerability occurs in all the impact areas but is most important in agriculture, water resources, and coastline. The implications of sea-level rise appear to be the most critical for Sri Lanka, as two key industries, fisheries and tourism, would be negatively affected. Negative implications would in turn strike a sizable service sector which relies on such industries. The impact on the national economy would be extremely serious, with particular regard to employment and foreign exchange earnings. In view of the high uncertainties with regard to future climate change implications, the country study does not propose stringent measures. Nevertheless it emphasizes the need to develop no regret strategies to promote economic growth while reducing environmental damages.


[Thailand]

The greenhouse gas emission inventory currently being prepared shows that carbon dioxide is generated primarily through the burning of fossil fuels and through changes in land use associated with large-scale deforestation and shifting cultivation. Methane is emitted from various sources, including flooded-field rice cultivation, enteric fermentation by domestic livestock, and animal wastes. In 1989, Thailand emitted 161 million tons of carbon dioxide, of which forestry and other human activities associated with land use changes generated 51.5 percent, and energy consumption accounted for 44.8 percent. Transportation and power generation are the major sources in this respect. Due to the dramatic increase in demand for electricity, which would be produced through intensive use of lignite and coal, carbon dioxide emissi6ns from the power sector are anticipated to surpass those of the transportation sector in the near future. Cement manufacturing is a relatively minor but nevertheless significant source of carbon dioxide emissions. Of Thailand's total emissions of methane in 1989, agriculture produced the highest amount (56 percent of the total). Emissions from rice fields accounted for about 0.52 million tons of methane, or 52.3 percent of agricultural methane production. Livestock produced 0.33 million tons (33.4 percent of the agricultural total), while wastes from domesticated animals added another 0.14 million tons (14.3 percent of the agricultural total). Biomass burning constituted about 0.77 million tons of methane emissions. In the coming years, the energy consumption sector as a whole is likely to surpass forestry as the most prominent source of greenhouse gases in Thailand, since the nation's economic growth is anticipated to be driven by continued, rapid industrial development, while emissions from Thailand's forests may begin to fall, as environmental concerns and changing economic incentives combine to mitigate deforestation. Among feasible policy options, the most substantial work has been in forestry policy, Using the COPATH forestry emissions model - a model developed by Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories in California - and 1989 data, it was estimated that the total carbon sink in Thailand's forests amounts to approximately 3.71 billion tons in 1989. In the current year, carbon release from conversion of forests to other uses totaled 27.2 million tons, a release which amounts to 1 to 3 percent of worldwide emissions from deforestation. The Thai Government has set a policy goal to increase national forest area to comprise 40 percent of total land area, a significant increase over the current 28 percent, through conservation and the development of forest areas. In order to effectively implement this policy, the forces driving deforestation, particularly land speculation, must be confronted, while increases in agricultural productivity and sustainable land use practices must be promoted.


[Viet Nam]

Long lasting meteorological studies provide some evidence of climate changes. Available statistics show a positive trend in the occurrence of typhoons, which have hit the coast seven times per year during the last three decades, compared to 4.7 times per year as a mean value derived from previous records. Statistical analysis also shows a significant increase of monthly temperature values mainly occurring in summer. While average annual rainfall does not seem to have changed during the past few decades, intra-annual distribution has been changing. Impact assessments have highlighted the extreme vulnerability of the deltas of the Mekong and Red Rivers and the central coast provinces where most of the agricultural production takes place and vital infrastructures are located. In this connection, sea level rise and negative effects on water resources have been pointed out as major environmental hazards associated with climate change. During the last three decades the sea level has been rising an average of 3-6 mm annually, especially along the northern coast. Major natural disasters due to flooding have occurred during the last decades. Current estimates of greenhouse gas emissions are 18 million tons per year between 1986 and 1990 (0.27 tons per person). Projections for the year 2000 double the present emission levels due to economic growth. While climate change assessment studies have been undertaken in the country during the recent years, the evaluation of socio-economic implications and mitigation/adaptation policies have been substantially initiated with the ADB-funded project. Among technical options, preference is given to sea dikes (expanding current construction projects) and mangrove forest protection. Water resource development and conservation is also a top priority to be pursued with international assistance. Further cooperation is sought on greenhouse gas emission monitoring and control; financial assistance is needed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change caused by greenhouse gas buildup.


Summary of discussion

Dr. Nishioka acknowledged the progress achieved since the First Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change held in Nagoya in 1991 , thanks to the ADB project and the information and methodology made available by IPCC.

The Seminar recommended to include further consultation among country-teams and international consultants for the completion of the ADB project. Each country team was encouraged to publish the detailed results of technical studies in peer-reviewed publications.

It was recommended that country teams interpret impact studies in light of the CSIRO suggested range of low, medium and high climate change scenarios. It was acknowledged that the formulation of effective response strategies depends on sound and reliable impact assessments. Vulnerability assessments should also encompass the institutional and financial capabilities and social preparedness available in each country to cope with climate change.

The Seminar recommended that the technical and economic assessment of feasible adaptation options should be based on the insights provided by past experiences and should consider the whole range of technical solutions available, ranking them according to local conditions. In this connection the Seminar made specific mention to forestry management and coastal protection measures, such as sea walls (most suitable to highly populated coastal areas) and mangrove plantations. Cost-effectiveness analysis needed more extensive application in the assessment of adaptation measures.

In relation to emission inventories, the Seminar acknowledged that country studies produced a variable degree of coverage across all source categories. This was a result of deliberate differences in emphasis among the studies and also of resource and time constraints. Data limitation and problems relating to the methodology should be clearly pointed out by each study team to allow the development of credible inventories. Country teams were encouraged to contact international consultants for advice as to the finalization of their reports. The precise identification of problems and gaps will also allow suitable research projects to be planned in the future.

The Seminar recognized that methodology improvement was particularly needed for inventories of biospheric sources/sinks of greenhouse gases.

In line with the original terms of reference for country studies, mitigation measures have been only qualitatively analyzed. The Seminar recommended that quantitative assessment and feasibility studies of available options should be carried out in the future, in light of the findings of impact and adaptation studies carried out within the framework of the project. In this connection, country-teams were encouraged to point out the difficulties met thus far.

It was recognized that climate change is not the only environmental stress that countries will face between 1993 and 2010 or 1993 and 2070. Often due to human actions, countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region are likely to experience changes in other crucial environmental indicators such as water and soil salinity, topsoil and vegetative cover, biodiversity and air and water quality. In developing adaptation strategies, it is important to ensure that these strategies also take in to consideration other stresses that are likely to accompany climate change.


4.Feasible Financing Mechanisms and Innovative Economic Instruments to Counter Climate Change

(Item 6 of the agenda)

Mr. Jeremy Warford, while underlining the critical issues of financing of climate change-related programs, mentioned that with external financing contributing to a tiny fraction of the requirements, domestic resource mobilization for implementing response strategies will have to be relied upon heavily. Among the ec9nomic instruments, effluent charges, and subsidies, might have limited potential because of monitoring problems. A more efficient system combining economic instruments (including deposit-refund scheme, performance bonds, and so forth,) with regulations should reduce pollution and therefore financing requirements. User charges could be the single best means of raising revenue, inducing efficiency and reducing waste. Priority should also be given to reform in energy (such as pricing), transportation, water resources and forestry. Adoption of a 10ng run marginal cost (LRMC) policy for electric power, which includes components of environmental costs (such as carbon taxes) may also generate financial surpluses. External funding from sources such as ADB will continue to be available to support "no-regrets" activities. However, given limited availability and willingness to borrow from such sources, official assistance should give priority to "no-regrets" activities. Where policy reforms and projects fail the test of economic justification, but could be justified on environmental grounds for dealing with global issues. GEF measures are likely to be available but in limited amounts. There is also a proposal to have a regional environment fund particularly for funding policy reforms in selected areas where such policy reforms were critical and made economic and environmental sense.

The Seminar noted that incremental costs associated with mitigation and adaptive measure for combating climate change are likely to be available through the funding available for the implementation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It recognized that economic and market based instruments could be effective in promoting efficiency and reducing capital requirements for funding pollution control programs. However, its application in developing countries of the region was currently limited. Efforts are necessary to sensitize various important groups, including policy makers, to the benefits of such economic and market based instruments so as to ensure its wide acceptance. The meeting also noted with interest a study on the incidence of carbon taxes on different consumer groups according to which its incidence was found to be regressive, particularly on the poor. Further studies may be required to assess comparative advantages of different economic instruments for pollution control and efficiency improvement, more particularly in the regional context.


5.Regional Strategy on Climate Change

(Item 7 of the agenda)

Mr. John C. Topping of Climate Institute introduced the document entitled "Suggestions for an Interim Asia-Pacific Regional Strategy to Cope with Climate Change" and outlined various elements which should form part of the regional strategy. These include strengthening research and monitoring programs for predicting climate change, developing credible national emission inventories, undertaking impact assessments, identifying technology and policy options and selecting the most cost effective means for reducing emissions, ensuring adequate financial resources for emission reduction, sink enhancement and adaptation, strengthening regional institutions key to climate responses, and developing institutional framework for implementing a regional strategy.

The Seminar recognized that regional strategy for combating climate change could be an effective tool for implementing the provisions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and for developing common approaches and stand on various related issues. It recommended that the regional strategy should basically address questions which need to be addressed for national-level actions. There may also be a need for the subregionalization of the regional strategy because monitoring activities in many cases would be more effectively undertaken on a subregional basis. Technology transfer was also identified as an important area of national and regional concern. The Seminar recommended that modalities for transfer of appropriate and cost-effective technology should receive serious attention for study at the regional and national levels. It also recognized that capacity building primarily at the national level is a prerequisite for launching effective programs for combating climate change.

The Seminar recognized that the framework of the regional strategy will be developed through the outputs of national case studies and deliberations at the seminar. The ESCAP secretariat will combine elements of national strategies to develop the regional strategy. The draft regional strategy would be transmitted to governments for their comments. The revised draft regional strategy could then be presented at the third Asia-Pacific Seminar on Climate Change, scheduled to be held in early 1994 in Japan, for its consideration.

The success of implementing a regional strategy will be largely dependent upon economic incentives available at the local level. This includes enhancement of energy efficiency through technological modifications in energy intensive industries such as cement, steel, and chemicals, coupled with policy reforms through pricing with the help of multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and ADB .

Findings of national country studies should be developed and nurtured by a regional institution such as ESCAP or UNEP and discussed by regional members of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change.


6.Seminar Recommendations

(Item 8 of the agenda)

The climate change scenario models should be adapted to the regional scale. The capacities of experts from the countries of the Asian and Pacific region should be developed in the adaptation and application of these models.

Research should be directed towards the improvement of models and methodologies for the evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts, with a view toward providing a reliable basis for decision making.

Regional cooperation should be promoted through information exchange training and capacity building, particularly through strengthening of institutions on climate responses.

Catalytic actions should be promoted by regional/international organizations for policy reforms at the national level through pricing, use of economic instruments and incentives.

A system of continuous monitoring and updating should be developed for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions with improved data and methods.

Greenhouse gas emission control measures and sink enhancement should be applied under a consistent long range policy.

The regional environment fund should be envisaged to include combating adverse impacts of climate change.

The most effective and least cost means of reducing emissions or enhancing sinks should be identified and pursued effectively by the national governments of the region.

Infrastructural support for climate monitoring, including capacity for monitoring greenhouse gases, should be strengthened.

Monetary estimates of impacts should be provided where it is feasible to do so, and should be used as a complement to physical description of consequences of climate change such as the number of people to be relocated due to flooding, sea level, or the effects on biodiversity.

Research should be promoted m database development related to climate change.

Relevant work on mitigation options with respect to the impacts of climate change should be promoted, taking into consideration the situation of the Asia Pacific region including labor costs, suitable technology options, and operational conditions.

Mechanisms should be promoted to ensure access to cost-effective technologies/methodologies for minimizing greenhouse gas emissions in the Asian and Pacific region.

In ranking the options to combat sea level rise, preference should be given to the most viable ones suited to the needs of each individual country.


7.Adoption of The Report

(Item 10 of the agenda)

The report of the Seminar was unanimously adopted on 31 March 1993.


8.Annex

Introduction
  • Why regional strategy:
  • Linkage with the Framework Convention
Research Needs
  • Assessment of research needs
  • Identification of gaps
  • Information exchange
  • Capacity building
Emissions Inventories and Assessment
  • Uncertainty
  • How to improve?
  • Institutional Support Requirements (IPCC, UN agencies, regional institutions)
Data and Monitoring Requirements
  • Global vs. regional vs. national needs
  • Intercalibration
  • Assessment of needs
  • Capacity building
Impact Assessment
  • Identify development sectors
  • Most likely impacts and need for further assessment
  • Promoting methodologies
  • Quantification in monitory terms, as far as possible
Tools and Methodologies
  • Use of models at regional/subregional/national levels
  • Capacity building both human resources and equipment requirements
  • Development of scenarios
Reduction and Mitigation Strategy (national and subregional basis)
  • Identification of major development sectors and impacts
  • Technology and policy options for mitigating/reduction of impacts
  • Selection of options based on cost-benefit etc.
  • Technology transfer (types and modalities)
Financing Requirements and Options
  • Assessing total financing requirements
  • Assessment of external financing/other capital flow
  • Enhancing domestic resources for the program through possible reallocation of existing resources
  • Generating additions resources including the use of innovative and economic instruments such as incentive mechanism, PPP, effluent charges, user charges, carbon tax, etc.
  • Improving efficiency of resource use
  • Multilateral funds such as GEF for financing incremental costs which not justifiable on economic basis, but contribute to global environmental improvement
Supporting Measures for Implementing Strategy
  • Institutional strengthening and networking
  • Information sharing
  • Regional cooperation
  • Training and awareness
  • Technical assistance and advisory services